Business weakened business activity assessments due to inflation and devaluation processes.
This is stated in the NBU material, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) in January 2025 was 41.0, which corresponds to the level of January 2024.
Traditionally, in January, business weakens its assessments of current business activity compared to other months, which is associated with seasonal factors.
The dynamics of BAEI were restrained by the difficult security situation, lack of investment in productive capital, needs for energy resources and labor, increasing production costs, inflation and devaluation processes.
At the same time, the drivers of the positive impact were stable consumer demand and significant amounts of international financial assistance.
Industrial enterprises assessed the results of their current activities more cautiously, given the destruction of production capacities, lack of investment in production capital, shortage of personnel and increase in production costs: the sectoral index in January was 42.0 (in January 2024 - 43.7).
Expectations for the volume of manufactured products, new orders for products, including export ones, as well as the volume of work in progress continued to weaken.
Respondents expected a further decrease in the balance of finished products, as well as stocks of raw materials and materials, while at the same time softened pessimistic assessments of the volume of work in progress.
Trade enterprises' assessments of their business activity at the beginning of the year are traditionally significantly lower than in other months: the sectoral index in January was 40.0. At the same time, this indicator is higher than in January 2024 (38.9).
Trading companies expected a decrease in trade turnover and purchases of goods for sale, while improving their assessments of the volume of goods for sale balances.
Respondents were still set on a decrease in trade margins.
Service companies also weakened their assessments of their economic prospects against the backdrop of the seasonal factor, as well as rising production costs: the sectoral index was 41.1 in January.
However, the assessment was slightly higher than in January 2024 (40.4). Respondents expected a further decrease in the volumes of services provided, new orders for services and services in progress.
Construction companies for the third consecutive time provided the most restrained assessments of their current economic results against the backdrop of seasonality of construction work and a shortage of qualified personnel: the sectoral index in January was only 37.2.
At the same time, the assessment improved significantly compared to January 2024 (31.9). Builders expected a further decline in construction volumes, new orders, and purchases of raw materials and supplies.
Expectations for the volume of purchases of contractor services also worsened, despite the slowdown in the growth rates of their value.
In the industry, construction, and services sectors, the share of respondents expecting an increase in prices for goods and services of their own production changed slightly.
In contrast, in the trade sector, the share of enterprises predicting an increase in the price of products for sale decreased significantly, including against the backdrop of seasonal sales.
The situation on the labor market remains difficult. Respondents from all surveyed sectors were set to reduce the number of employees, most significantly in construction. At the same time, service enterprises expected a slowdown in the pace of staff reductions.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from January 6 to 23, 2025. 519 enterprises participated in the survey. Among the surveyed enterprises, 43.7% are industrial companies, 26.6% are in the service sector, 24.5% are in trade, 5.2% are in construction; 29.7% of respondents are large enterprises, 28.3% are medium-sized, 42.0% are small.
33.1% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.2% carry out only export operations, 18.7% carry out only import operations, 38.9% do not carry out foreign economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The Monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (MBAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy. The National Bank calculates the MBAEI every month, except for the forced break in March-May 2022.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the country's economic development for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.
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