The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects growth in migration from Ukraine in 2025 and gradual return of Ukrainians from 2026.
This is stated in the NBU inflation report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
It is reported that in the event of an exacerbation of the course of hostilities, the risk of deepening negative migration trends and further growth in the labor shortage will increase.
At the same time, the rapid achievement of a just and lasting peace for Ukraine will stimulate the return of Ukrainians from abroad.
High security risks, constant shelling and destruction, and the continued electricity shortage negatively affect the quality of life of Ukrainians, which leads to further external migration.
During 2024, the outflow of migrants from Ukraine continued and amounted to about 0.5 million people in total for the year, which corresponded to the NBU's estimates.
This gives reason not to change the assumptions regarding the further dynamics of migration.
In 2025, the net outflow of external migrants is expected to continue (about 0.2 million people), while in 2026 the net return of migrants to Ukraine (about 0.2 million people) will begin, which will accelerate in 2027 (about 0.5 million people).
There is a decrease in the share of those who wish to return due to the further adaptation of Ukrainians abroad.
Therefore, a massive and rapid return of migrants under the conditions of maintaining the status quo seems unlikely, as a result of which the labor shortage will persist in the forecast period.
This will lead to the preservation of imbalances in the labor market and wage growth at a rate higher than productivity growth in certain sectors, which will increase inflationary pressure.
The slow return of migrants home will also limit the recovery of domestic demand.
The risks of a greater outflow of migrants abroad and a smaller return remain.
If they are realized, the labor market situation will deteriorate, and domestic consumer demand may decline.
At the same time, a change in the policy of recipient countries towards Ukrainian migrants and the proactive policy of the Ukrainian government towards returning migrants home may revive the migration inflow.
It will also be stimulated in the event of a rapid decrease in security risks in Ukraine.
In this case, the labor shortage will decrease, consumer demand will recover faster, while the risks of unemployment growth in the short term may also increase.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, almost 25% of Ukrainian refugees currently in Europe do not plan to return to Ukraine in the long term.
This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Munich IFO Institute (Germany) in June 2024.
According to the results of the study, about 35% of Ukrainian refugees want to return to Ukraine as soon as it becomes safe there again, 4% plan to return in the near future, regardless of the security situation, almost 11% have already returned to Ukraine, and another 25% are undecided.
Who we are: About us, Contacts. How we write news and our principles: Editorial code. We did our best. If you found this valuable – please support us.
To request a correction, please send an email.