The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 4.3% to 3.6% in 2025.
This is stated in the NBU report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
Thanks to significant international support, as well as a high level of adaptability of business and the population to war conditions, Ukraine's economy continues to recover.
According to NBU estimates, in 2024, Ukraine's real GDP grew by 3.4%, which is less than the NBU's October forecast.
The pace of economic growth has slowed compared to 2023.
This is explained not only by worse harvests and somewhat weaker-than-expected external demand, but also by the realization of risks of increased intensity of hostilities, increased russian air attacks, and the associated electricity shortage.
The persistence of high security risks also hindered the return of migrants and led to a significant labor shortage.
Taking into account security risks and the difficult situation on the labor market, the NBU lowered the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.6%.
At the same time, the baseline scenario of the NBU forecast, as before, assumes a gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions.
Accordingly, in 2026–2027, a moderate acceleration of economic growth is expected - to about 4%.
On the one hand, the consequences of the war, which affected the labor shortage and the lack of productive capital, will continue to limit the economy.
On the other hand, the recovery will be facilitated by investments in energy and production capacities, maintaining a fairly soft fiscal policy, and growing private consumption against the background of increasing incomes.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the Ministry of Economy expects Ukraine's GDP to grow by 4% in 2024.
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