The beginning of the year is unlikely to have a significant impact on the currency market. Despite the increase in prices, some uncertainty in January regarding energy, the course of the war, as in the week before, the official rate will be in the range of 41.8-42.1 UAH/USD, and exchange rate changes will remain controlled and predictable.
The head of the treasury department of Globus Bank Taras Lisovyi stated this in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
"The fact is that the decision to change the key policy rate from 13% to 13.5% is designed to somewhat strengthen the hryvnia, and actually relieve demand on the interbank market. So, we can say that in addition to currency interventions, there is another important mechanism for containing inflation," the expert noted.
As for the level of demand, it is quite possible that at the beginning of the year the volume of foreign exchange interventions may return to the standard USD 150-180 million per day.
"That is, the tension from increased demand, which was observed in the second half of December, may save something," Lisovyi added.
"In addition, it is expected that the market will be affected by such systemic things as the confirmed volume of international financial assistance for 2025, which will make it possible to ensure coverage of expenses, international currency reserves, the general state of the economy, etc.," the banker said.
"International assistance remains almost a key source, which allows not only to keep the country afloat, while increasing defense spending without budgetary damage," Lisovyi said.
The banker predicts that the main characteristics of the foreign exchange market next week will be as follows.
The corridors of permissible exchange rate changes will be 41.8-42.1 UAH/USD and 43.5-45 UAH/EUR (on the interbank market) and 41.9-42.2 UAH/USD and 45-47.5 UAH/EUR (on the cash market).
Depending on the currency, the average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be UAH 0.3-0.5.
Average weekly exchange rate deviations will be within 1-1.5% of the starting rate of the week.
"Therefore, the general situation on the foreign exchange market during the first days of 2025 will be quite predictable: rapid exchange rate changes are almost excluded, instead, measures will be taken to curb inflation," Lisovyi stated.
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