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British intelligence explains why russia launches fewer Shahed drones over Ukraine in December

In December, the number of kamikaze drone launches by the aggressor state russia was about 850, which is a decrease in the pace compared to previous months. It is likely that the weather affected the operations in December.

It was reported by the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom.

Thus, in November 2024, russia launched approximately 2,300 kamikaze drones of various types over the territory of Ukraine, which once again exceeded the total number for the previous month. The monthly number has been growing steadily throughout 2024, with a significant increase - more than 200 units compared to the previous month - observed since July 2024.

"It is likely that through September-November 2024, as many as 50-60% of the total launches were ‘decoy’ OWA UAS. The Russian forces have a variety of decoys available," the intelligence service noted.

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It explains that they are smaller in size and cheaper than SHAHED-class UAVs due to structural materials, they are intended to complicate Ukrainian defense by saturating or confusing the radar picture, forcing Ukrainian air defense teams to work harder, hoping to cause them fatigue over time.

It is noted that some of these systems probably still carry a small payload (up to 5 kg) of explosives, which ultimately makes them no less dangerous if they reach the target.

Already from October to November, the growth rate has decreased compared to previous months. Data for December 2024 indicate approximately 850 launches.

"However it is likely that weather has impacted operations in December, evidenced through some nights with significantly larger waves following a period of low or no activity," the agency explained.

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It is indicated that in the absence of an impact on launch sites and production, it is likely that russia can maintain the number of launches at a level of at least over 1,500 per month. Russian kamikaze drones provide coverage of targets throughout Ukraine, which allows russia to maintain pressure and at the same time replenish its reserves of Long Range Aviation Missiles.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, from 10:00 a.m. on Sunday, December 22, to 9:00 a.m. on Monday, December 23, the russians attacked with 72 Shahed strike UAVs and drones of other types from the directions of Bryansk, Oryol - the aggressor country of the russian federation, the Air Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine informed.

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