American analysts name targets of russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that a series of russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities is part of a broader campaign aimed at freezing Ukraine in the winter and making political decisions that are beneficial to the Kremlin.

This is stated in a report published on the portal of the American ISW.

It is noted that during the day on December 12-13, russian troops carried out the largest series of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine since the beginning of the war, aimed mainly at Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

In total, the radio-technical troops of the Air Force detected 287 enemy air attack vehicles during this period - 94 missiles and 193 UAVs.

Ukrainian energy operator DTEK reported that the russian attack caused serious damage to thermal power plants (TPPs), and Ukrainian authorities reported that the russian strikes targeted energy facilities and critical infrastructure in the Kyiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Ternopil Regions.

There were also reports of widespread power outages across much of the country following the attack.

The IAEA said that five of the nine nuclear reactors in Ukrainian-controlled territory had reduced their capacity due to the russian strikes, with two nuclear reactors already producing power at reduced capacity due to residual effects of the russian strikes in late November 2024, and the remaining three had returned to full capacity on December 13.

"The series of russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities is part of a broader campaign aimed at freezing Ukraine in the winter of 2024-2025 and forcing Ukraine and the West to make political decisions favorable to russia," the ISW stated.

It noted that russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the fall and winter since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022 and has carried out large-scale strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, in particular on November 16-17 and 25-26 of this year.

"The russian Defense Ministry said that russian forces carried out the strike on December 12-13 in response to Ukraine's strike on Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, on December 11 using Western-supplied ATACMS, although russian forces likely planned to carry out such a strike regardless, and it is convenient for them to use the December 11 strike to justify ongoing russian strikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine," ISW stressed.

Analysts note that this russian message is likely aimed at calming calls from the russian ultranationalist community for retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on russia, and is intended to support the Kremlin's reflexive control campaign aimed at forcing Western countries to make decisions about Ukraine's use of Western-supplied weapons and future peace talks on terms favorable to russia.

Experts add that Ukrainian strikes on military airfields in russia and russian air defense systems in the near rear areas could lead to a decrease in the number of russian air operations and air bomb strikes on Ukraine.

Indeed, in their opinion, the threat of Ukrainian strikes on russian airfields in the range of the ATACMS and Storm Shadow systems could force the russian military to base aircraft at airfields located further into russia and complicate russia's ability to strike Ukraine using air bombs.

At the same time, a targeted campaign of strikes on russian air defense is designed to worsen it, especially over the occupied part of Ukraine, in order to reduce russian bombing of front-line areas and rear Ukrainian cities.

Key ISW conclusions for December 13:

• Over the course of 24 hours on December 12-13, russian troops carried out the largest series of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine since the beginning of the war, mainly on Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities.
• Russia’s series of strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities is part of a broader campaign to freeze Ukraine in the winter of 2024-2025 and force Ukraine and the West to exercise restraint and make policy decisions that are favorable to russia.
• ​​Ukrainian strikes on military airfields in russia and russian air defense systems in the near rear could lead to a reduction in russian air operations and glide bomb strikes on Ukraine.
• Russia is evacuating elements of its military group in Syria, while continuing talks with individual Syrian groups about russia’s long-term military presence in the country.
• The status of the russian helicopter base in Qamishli in northeastern Syria remains unclear.
• The U.S. Department of Defense announced a new USD 500 million military aid package to Ukraine on December 12.
• A russian insider source who previously correctly predicted a command change in the russian army has responded to recent claims that the russian military command has removed the commander of the 3rd Combined Arms Army (formerly the 2nd Army Corps) from his post. (of the so-called "LPR") Major General Dmitry Ovcharov.
• Russian troops advanced near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar.

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