The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reports that the actual price growth rates exceeded the forecast trajectory.
This is stated in the NBU report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
In November 2024, consumer inflation accelerated to 11.2% year-on-year from 9.7% in October.
In monthly terms, prices increased by 1.9%.
The actual price growth rates exceeded the forecast trajectory published in the Inflation Report for October 2024.
One of the main factors behind the faster inflation growth was the further accelerated increase in food prices.
Smaller-than-expected harvests of certain agricultural crops led to a reduction in their supply and an increase in the cost of raw materials for the food industry.
Administratively regulated prices also grew somewhat faster than expected.
Fundamental inflationary pressures also increased more than expected: core inflation in November rose to 9.3% from 8.3% in October.
This dynamics was due to both a faster increase in the price of processed food products under the influence of higher prices for food raw materials, and a further increase in business costs related to energy supply, labor costs, and the effects of devaluation in previous periods.
The growth in prices for raw food products accelerated sharply - to 15.7% y/y.
The hot summer and autumn with long periods without precipitation negatively affected the yield, ripening time, quality, and supply of a number of vegetables and fruits.
As a result, the prices of borscht vegetables, cucumbers, and apples rose faster.
There was also increased pressure from production costs, in particular on electricity for storing finished products in retail chains and warehouses.
The increase in the cost of raw materials, feed and production costs, including energy, affected the prices of flour, cereals, milk, eggs and meat.
Alcohol and tobacco products rose more rapidly, including under the influence of exchange rate effects in previous months and the fight against shadow production.
The increase in excise duties on tobacco products from January 1, 2025 may also motivate manufacturers and importers to raise prices in advance.
The growth in prices for pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment has accelerated.
As before, administrative inflation was restrained by a moratorium on raising tariffs for certain housing and communal services for the population.
The increase in fuel prices slowed down sharply - to 0.6% y/y.
Demand on the fuel market continued to remain restrained against the backdrop of significant supply and mainly downward dynamics of world oil prices.
Inflationary pressure will persist in the coming months due to lower supply of certain food products than last year, significant budget expenditures, high wage growth rates, and electricity shortages during the heating season.
At the same time, the National Bank expects that inflation will gradually return to a downward trajectory next year and will continue to move towards the NBU's target of 5%.
This will be facilitated by the gradual improvement of the situation in the energy sector, the expected increase in harvests, the weakening of external price pressure, as well as the NBU's interest rate and exchange rate policy measures.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in November 2024, consumer prices increased by 1.9%.
Compared to November 2023, in November 2024, consumer prices increased by 11.2%.
In January-November 2024, inflation was 10.4%.
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