There are likely seven weeks left for significant fighting on the front in Ukraine – until the inauguration of the United States president-elect Donald Trump.
Therefore, each side is now making significant efforts to ensure that its actions become the last major push in the war, Politico reports.
The publication recalls that Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine within a day of taking office. He appointed former national security assistant and retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as a special envoy for russia and Ukraine with a mandate to negotiate a truce.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces and the russian occupation army are currently straining to seize territory and gain any tactical advantage to strengthen their influence before the negotiations begin.
“There’s about to be a game-changing proposition put into the theater in the form of Donald Trump,” said James Nixey, the head of the russia-Eurasia program at the Chatham House think tank in London.
That makes the next two months before his inauguration a potentially dangerous time, with so much at stake for both sides.
“Everyone is assuming that there is a negotiation to come and both the Ukrainians and Russians want to be in the best place for it. As both sides make more efforts, the risk of miscalculation gets more acute,” said a senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to comment publicly.
The escalation is visible not only on the battlefield, where russia has moved thousands of North Korean troops, but also in the kremlin’s threats. Russia has weakened its nuclear deterrent and attacked Ukraine with a new type of missile. Moscow has also threatened to make a U.S. missile base in Poland a “priority target for potential neutralization.”
Kyiv and moscow each have other reasons to want a quick end of the war. “They’re both in a race against time, not just because of Trump, but also because they both have systemic, endemic problems," Nixey said.
In his opinion, Ukraine is short of manpower and seems to be “on course to lose this war.” Russia, although it has found help from North Korea and China, has other serious problems - pressure on its economy, a weakening ruble and putin's refusal to mobilize.
NATO believes that russia is gaining ground, but at a high price, losing probably 1,500 soldiers a day. At the same time, Ukraine is holding on, albeit with difficulty.
"It's not easy, but it's not over. It's not a lost cause," says Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO's military committee.
At the same time, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide predicts that the final weeks of the war could become critical, since the terms of the ceasefire could determine the lives of people in Ukraine for generations.
“These historic decisions between countries will always leave something,” Eide said.
The publication emphasizes that Trump’s choice of his envoy is also decisive. In April, the 80-year-old Kellogg co-authored a strategic document in which he called for continued arming of Ukraine, but only on the condition that Kyiv agrees to participate in peace talks with russia. According to him, the United States “should offer to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees.” However, peace talks have their pitfalls.
“There is little evidence that Putin does actually want to negotiate for real. He can be patient where it is in his own interests,” said one of the publication’s interlocutors.
Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly warned that the risk of negotiations with putin would be that he would regroup and invade Ukraine again.
According to Chatham House’s Nixey, putin is seeking to expand the war.
“He does believe that he is at war with the wider West, and he has found a new way of tackling it by calling on and joining forces with what he calls ‘the global majority,” the expert added.
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