Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War report that there is nothing new in the capabilities of the Oreshnik missile, and its use will not lead to further escalation in the war.
The ISW report notes that russian dictator vladimir putin's efforts to highlight the missile's technical characteristics are part of a broader information campaign.
ISW is convinced that the emphasis on the missile's range and payload, comparing its destructive capabilities with those of a "meteorite", is designed to intimidate Ukraine and the West and distract Kyiv from further strikes on russian territory with Western systems.
“Even Putin's threat of strikes on "decision-making centers" in Kyiv rings empty—Russian forces regularly strike civilian and critical infrastructure in Kyiv City with drones and nuclear-capable missiles,” the ISW reports.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky summed up this fact on November 29 in response to putin's statements at a meeting of the CSTO Security Council in Kazakhstan, and stated that "Putin wants to add thousands more to the thousands of missiles that have already hit Ukraine."
Reuters, citing five sources close to U.S. intelligence, noted on November 27 that the Oreshnik strike on November 21 did not change U.S. intelligence assessments that the kremlin is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, even in response to strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on russian territory with Western weapons.
“Putin's constant flaunting of the Oreshnik and Russian missile capabilities therefore remains part of the Kremlin's reflexive control information operation and is unlikely to presage the development of particularly novel Russian deep strike capabilities,” the analysts conclude.
Key Takeaways:
Russian president vladimir putin continues to laud the technical specifications of the recently launched Oreshnik ballistic missile and threaten additional Oreshnik strikes against Ukraine as part of an intensified russian reflexive control campaign aimed at forcing the West and Ukraine into self-deterrence.
There is nothing particularly novel about the capabilities of the Oreshnik missile, and U.S. and Ukrainian officials indicated that the Oreshnik missile does not portend a russian escalation in the war. Putin's constant flaunting of the Oreshnik and russian missile capabilities therefore remains part of the kremlin's reflexive control information operation and is unlikely to presage the development of particularly novel russian deep strike capabilities.
The russian military is considering establishing a separate service branch for unmanned systems, likely as part of the russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) in a belated effort to catch up to the establishment of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) in February 2024.
Russian forces conducted a large series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid and major defense industrial facilities on the nights of November 27 to 28 and 28 to 29.
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against four russian air defense systems and radars in occupied Ukraine and two oil depots in russia on November 28 and 29.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov made an unannounced visit to Pyongyang, North Korea on November 29 amid intensifying russian-North Korean cooperation.
Russian president vladimir putin reportedly appointed Colonel General Rustam Muradov as First Deputy Commander of the russian Ground Forces.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office opened additional investigations on November 28 into the apparent russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Regions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as Ukraine's new Ground Forces Commander on November 29, replacing Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk.
Georgians protested in Tbilisi, Georgia in response to an initiative by the ruling pro-kremlin Georgian Dream party to delay European Union (EU) accession negotiations, prompting the russian information space to resurrect information operations falsely framing the protests and Georgian opposition parties as potential threats to Georgian sovereignty.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Vuhledar.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, in Toretsk, near Pokrovsk, and near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian opposition outlets Mediazona and BBC russian Service reported that they have confirmed that at least 80,937 russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine since the start of russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
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