Russian president vladimir putin and the russian military leadership continue to praise the Oreshnik ballistic missile, launched on November 21, but military analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) consider it part of an information campaign aimed at exaggerating russia's capabilities and putting pressure on the West and Ukraine.
On November 22, putin met with the leadership of the russian Defense Ministry, representatives of the russian defense-industrial complex and missile developers, calling the launch of Oreshnik "successful" in response to "those who are trying to blackmail" russia.
Putin said that Oreshnik is based on advanced technologies, is not a modernization of Soviet missiles and is already being prepared for mass production. The commander of the russian Missile Forces, Colonel General Sergei Karakayev, emphasized that the missile is capable of hitting targets throughout Europe, having no analogues in the world.
American and Ukrainian media outlets have reported that Oreshnik is not a fundamentally new weapon. Pentagon officials have confirmed that it is a medium-range missile based on the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh also noted that previous russian attacks have used missiles with larger warheads.
Ukrainian military intelligence suggests that Oreshnik is the code name for the Kedr missile project, which is based on the Yars ICBM. The head of the Defense Intelligence, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, noted that the development of Kedr has been ongoing since 2018-2019. ISW cannot independently confirm these claims, but agrees that the November 21 strike does not demonstrate new russian capabilities.
“Russia is capitalizing on the high-profile announcement of the November 21 strike and likely hopes that heightened concerns about the Oreshnik launch will prompt the West to reduce its support for Ukraine,” the ISW said.
Key takeaways:
- Russian president vladimir putin and the russian military leadership continue to praise the ballistic missile that russian forces launched over Ukraine on November 21, likely in an attempt to artificially inflate expectations about russia’s capabilities and encourage West and Ukrainian restraint.
- Russia may conduct additional test launches of the same or similar ballistic missiles in the coming days to achieve a similar emotional effect.
- Russia has reportedly provided North Korea with more than one million barrels of oil and an unspecified number of air defense systems and missiles in exchange for manpower for military operations in Ukraine.
- The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine has launched an investigation into another case of execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war by russian forces in the Donetsk Region.
- Russian forces have recently advanced west of Svatove, south of Chasiv Yar, south of Toretsk, northeast of Vuhledar, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka.
- Russia continues to build up its training potential by establishing new military academies in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
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