British intelligence has stated that the main event that changed the nature of the war in Ukraine was the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
This is stated in a review by the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom.
Thus, the review noted that for more than 1,000 days of the conflict, the russian Aerospace Forces, despite their technological and numerical superiority, were unable to gain air superiority over Ukraine. Russia resorted to using its tactical-level aircraft – for example, SU-34 aircraft – as aerial artillery.
"The major development which has changed the nature of the conflict has been the use of Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Since mid-2024, the number of One Way Attack UAV launches has likely allowed Russia the space and time to recuperate its Long Range Aviation fleet, and their associated Air Launched Cruise Missile and Air Launched Ballistic Missile stocks," the report said.
It noted that whilst russia retains the ability to use these assets, the ultimate effect is that the Ukraine's air defense picture is increasingly busy, complex, and challenging.
"With this combination of systems the Russians have consistently targeted Ukrainian critical national infrastructure (CNI) and air bases. Future strikes against Ukrainian CNI are expected this winter, as Russia attempts to break the will of the Ukrainian people," the report said.
The intelligence community added that Ukraine has been successfully using UAVs against military targets in russia. In mid- and late September, Ukraine struck four russian strategic ammunition depots hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine. The total tonnage of ammunition destroyed at these sites is the largest loss of russian and North Korean ammunition during the war.
"The attacks again highlight Russia's inability to protect strategic military sites from Ukrainian UAV attack," the agency stressed.
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