Business worsened inflation expectations for the first time in 8 quarters and strengthened devaluation expectations.
This is stated in the material of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
The business slightly improved estimates of its business activity in the next 12 months, maintained positive forecasts for attracting investment, but instead expects a moderate increase in inflation and the exchange rate.
The business activity expectations index (BAEI) was 100.6% against 99.5% in the second quarter of 2024.
Survey participants improved their positive estimates regarding the total volume of product sales, investment costs for equipment and inventory, and also moderated their negative estimates regarding investment costs for construction works.
At the same time, respondents worsened their assessments of the future financial and economic condition of enterprises and the number of employees.
Military operations and their consequences remain, despite a certain weakening, the dominant factor affecting the ability of enterprises to increase production volumes.
The influence of such factors as tax changes, the exchange rate of the hryvnia against foreign currencies, as well as production costs, has significantly increased.
Deterioration of inflation expectations occurred for the first time in eight quarters: in the third quarter of 2024, expected annual inflation in the next 12 months was 9.7% compared to 9.0% in the previous quarter.
The share of respondents who expected inflation to be no higher than 10.0% decreased over the quarter from 62.8% to 54.4%.
Military operations remain the most significant pro-inflationary factor for 81.1% of respondents.
The influence of the exchange rate factor increased significantly - by 7.1 percentage points to 75.4%, as well as production costs - by 4.9 percentage points to 68.5%.
The influence of the tax factor increased the most - by 2.5 times to 37.9%.
Expectations regarding the devaluation of the national currency increased once again: the average value of the exchange rate, which respondents expect in 12 months, is 43.72 UAH/USD (in the previous quarter – 41.61 UAH/USD).
The share of respondents who predict that the exchange rate of the hryvnia in the next 12 months will fluctuate in the range of 42.1-44.0 UAH/USD, is 44.1%.
The quarterly survey was conducted from July 31 to August 28, 2024.
655 enterprises from 21 regions of the country participated in the survey (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as well as the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson Regions).
Among the surveyed enterprises, 21.1% are wholesale and retail trade companies, 19.1% are processing industry, 14.5% are agriculture, 13.6% are transport and communications, 6.6% are mining industry, 4.7% are energy and water supply, 3.1% are construction, 17.4% – others; 30.2% of respondents are large enterprises, 35.1% are medium-sized enterprises, and 34.7% are small enterprises.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the results of the polls reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The business activity expectations index (BAEI) is an aggregate indicator of the expected development of enterprises in the next 12 months.
It is calculated based on the results of surveys of enterprises as the arithmetic mean value of the balances of answers regarding the financial and economic status of enterprises, the total volume of sales of products of own production, investment expenditures for construction works, investment expenditures for machines, equipment and inventory, and the number of employees.
The value of the index above 100 means the predominance of positive economic sentiments in the society, below 100 – negative economic sentiments.
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