The actual rates of price growth were higher than the forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), published in the Inflation Report for July 2024.
This is stated in the message of the NBU, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The deviation from the forecast is caused primarily by the faster acceleration of food inflation due to the limited supply of individual food products.
Underlying inflationary pressures also strengthened more than forecast.
Thus, the core inflation index rose to 7.3% in September from 6.5% in August.
Such dynamics were caused by the increase in the price of processed food products under the influence of the higher cost of food raw materials, as well as the further increase in production costs, in particular, energy supply and labor costs.
Price pressure and carry-over effects from the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate in previous months were supported.
The growth of prices for raw food products accelerated sharply - up to 7.1% y/y.
The hot weather without rain affected the yield, ripening time and quality parameters of a number of vegetables and fruits, which was reflected in their offers.
In particular, borscht vegetables and tomatoes became more expensive, and the rate of growth of cucumber prices remained high.
The increase in the cost of raw materials and production costs affected the prices of flour and cereals.
The increase in the price of milk accelerated due to the limited supply while simultaneously maintaining high demand from milk processing enterprises and boosting exports.
The rise in chicken prices resumed, while pork prices continued to fall.
Sugar and egg prices also continued to fall due to high supply.
The growth of administratively regulated prices slightly accelerated - up to 14.0% y/y.
Tobacco products became more expensive, including under the influence of the fight against shadow products.
Prices for alcoholic beverages decreased somewhat more slowly, probably due to the increase of certain excise taxes.
The growth of prices for pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment accelerated, probably due to the exchange rate factor and the increase in morbidity.
As before, inflation was restrained by a moratorium on tariff increases for certain housing and communal services for the population.
The growth of fuel prices slowed down sharply - to 6.0% y/y.
The first stage of the increase in the excise tax on fuel from September was primarily reflected in the price of LPG, while low oil prices and high inventories restrained the price increase of gasoline and diesel.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, inflation was 1.5% in September.
In January-September 2024, inflation was 6.5%.
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