Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that even a small number of successful Ukrainian strikes from a significant distance could change the course of the war, and the kremlin was conducting covert operations against Western powers long before the debate about Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike russia began.
This is stated in the russian Offensive Campaign Assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as of September 27, 2024, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
"Russian authorities appear to be expending a significant amount of effort to influence the Western debate about allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to conduct long-range strikes against military objects in Russia. This Russian effort suggests a deep concern with the operational pressures that such strikes into Russia would generate on Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, although US officials remain hesitant to permit Ukraine to conduct such strikes," the daily review said.
The New York Times (NYT), citing sources, reported that U.S. intelligence estimates "play down" the effect that Ukrainian strikes on russia from long-range missile systems provided by the U.S., UK and France could have on the course of the war in Ukraine, due to the limited number of such weapons in Ukraine and the uncertainty regarding the future provision of more long-range systems.
The NYT notes that officials in the U.S. military and the Biden administration, who support the policy change, said the Western-provided weapons would allow Ukraine to strike more distant russian bases and ammunition depots and force the russian military to relocate ammunition depots, command posts, combat helicopters and other equipment beyond the range of Western missiles, which, as officials noted, will greatly complicate russian supply routes to Ukraine.
"Russian authorities are likely concerned about how moving ammunition depots and other critical storage facilities further away from the frontline and outside the range of Western-provided systems will impact Russian offensive capabilities in Ukraine and appear to be engaged in a significant rhetorical effort to prevent the West from allowing Ukraine to conduct another similarly significant strike campaign,” the ISW post said.
In recent weeks, russian ruler vladimir putin has reintroduced several of the kremlin's most effective narratives into Western and russian media spaces and adapted his typically boilerplate language to the ongoing debate in the West over allowing Ukraine to launch long-range strikes against russia using Western-provided weapons.
"The benefits of allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range strike systems against Russia may outweigh the risk of Russian retaliation more than Western policymakers are currently considering," the report said.
According to the NYT, the assessment states that russia is likely to respond with greater force against the U.S. and its allies, possibly with covert attacks on U.S. and European strategic facilities and military bases in Europe, if the West allows Ukraine to use the provided systems to strike at facilities in russia.
"The Kremlin has been conducting covert operations against Western powers since long before the ongoing debate about Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike Russia and the Kremlin may intend to intensify these operations regardless of the West's decision as these operations support other Kremlin objectives to destabilize European countries and undermine NATO's military readiness," the researchers state.
Key Takeaways for September 27:
- Ukrainian forces repelled a reinforced battalion-size russian mechanized assault in the Kupiansk direction on September 26 — the first large russian mechanized assault along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since Winter 2024.
- Russian forces may be intensifying their efforts to reach the Oskil River, although russian advances on the east (left) bank of the Oskil River will likely continue to be relatively gradual.
- The russian military command has demonstrated that it will likely accept continued gradual gains along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, however.
- The Western Grouping of Forces likely has limited capacity to maintain an intensified offensive effort along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line or conduct effective combat operations that result in more rapid gains.
- Russian authorities appear to be expending a significant amount of effort to influence the Western debate about allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to conduct long-range strikes against military objects in russia. This russian effort suggests a deep concern with the operational pressures that such strikes into russia would generate on russian offensive operations in Ukraine, although U.S. officials remain hesitant to permit Ukraine to conduct such strikes.
- The benefits of allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range strike systems against russia may outweigh the risk of russian retaliation more than Western policymakers are currently considering.
- Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with kremlin-affiliated milbloggers on September 27, likely as part of the ongoing kremlin effort to coopt russian milbloggers and downplay recent backlash in the ultranationalist information space over the death of two prominent drone operators.
- The People's Republic of China (PRC) announced a new initiative to draw international support for its alternative peace plan for Ukraine amid increasing cooperation with russia.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continued to meet with U.S. officials about the war in Ukraine during his visit to the U.S. on September 26 and 27.
- Russian and Ukrainian forces continued assaults in the Kursk Oblast, but neither side made further advances.
- Russian forces recently advanced within and around Toretsk and southeast of Pokrovsk.
- Russian authorities continue to threaten russian frontline soldiers' ad-hoc communications networks.
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