Analysts of the American Robert Lansing Institute (RLI) believe that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, is preparing to hand over power. One of the reasons for this is strong pressure from the aggressor country russia.
This is stated in a publication on the RLI website.
According to analysts, recently there are more and more signs that Lukashenko is preparing for a change of power in Belarus.
RLI analysts believe that Lukashenko aspires to a controlled and self-governing transfer of power with guarantees of his inviolability. This is indicated by his recent statements, reluctance to join the invasion of Ukraine and peace initiatives.
"We believe that there is a high probability that Lukashenko is driven by the fear of losing power either due to Russia's actions or due to the prospect of being drawn into a war, which will lead to significant losses for the country," the publication says.
RLI analysts also suggest that Lukashenko may begin preparations for the transfer of power due to health problems.
At the same time, they believe that pressure from moscow is a determining factor in this process.
RLI analysts suggested that in the coming months, Lukashenko may try to start a dialogue with a number of Western countries with the aim of normalizing relations and obtaining the approval of a potential successor.
RLI points out that Lukashenko, despite his aggressive statements, allegedly opposes the war with Ukraine, because he understands that the defeat of Kyiv will lead to the strengthening of the integration of Belarus into a single state with russia.
"This will lead to his removal from power and the strengthening of security forces loyal to the Kremlin <...> For Lukashenko, the end of the war in Ukraine on Russia's terms is an undesirable outcome, as it may lead <...> to a soft annexation that will push Lukashenko away on the back burner," RLI analysts believe.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on August 10, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko accused Ukraine of violating the country's airspace.
According to Lukashenko, Ukrainian drones allegedly flew into the territory of Belarus, which had to be shot down by the Belarusian military.
We will remind, later the Belarusian monitoring channel Belarusian Hajun stated that Lukashenko lied about Ukrainian drones. Analysts also said that reports about the use of aviation by Belarus to allegedly destroy drones are untrue.
We also wrote that as of August 23, Belarus had moved at least a thousand soldiers and military equipment to the border with Ukraine.
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