DRC: russia probably behind environmental protests in Serbia

The likely organizer of the protests against Serbia's agreement with the European Union on lithium mining is the russian federation - a wide range of actors connected to russia are involved in the mobilization of the population for protests: mass media, political parties, and public organizations, including extremist ones, and the disruption of such an agreement corresponds interests of the russian government.

This is stated in the closed report of the Defense Reforms Center (DRC), "russian influence on environmental protests in Serbia in August 2024," which is at the disposal of the Guildhall newsroom.

"The assessment of the protests, which is widespread in the Western expert environment, as being organized exclusively by environmental organizations and local entrepreneurs is also supported by the measures of public diplomacy of the russian federation, in particular the message of the russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and by individual representatives of the government of Serbia, which have their own ties with russia, for example, awarded by the Foreign Intelligence Service of the russian federation with the "Order of Friendship" Alexander Vulin, who announced the preparation of a coup d'état in the country by the West and relevant public organizations," analysts note.

"A network of organizations connected to the russian federation, including right-wing radical and extremist groups, football ultras, environmental and public organizations, and opposition political parties, are involved both in exerting influence aimed at derailing the agreement and in mobilizing the population for street actions," states the DRC.

The leader of the right-wing radical organization "People's Patrol" Damyan Knezhevych (third from the right), with the head of the "friendship and cooperation center" of the Wagner "Z-Orly" PMC in Belgrade, Alexandr Lisov (second from the right).

According to the report, the campaign was supported by the state media of the russian federation, in particular, Russia Today Balkans, which covered and announced the protests of environmental organizations, including the main protest in Belgrade on August 10, as well as Sputnik Serbia, which updated the arrests of campaign activists.

A network of extremist and right-wing radical organizations linked to the russian military intelligence (GRU), including Narodna Patrola (People's Patrol), whose leader Damnjan Knezhevy visited in 2022 the base of the GRU cover organization, the so-called Wagner private military company in Saint Petersburg, as well as Srbska Aktsia, Club 451 and their youth department Youth Gathering, Zentropa, and the neo-fascist Obraz.

Analysts emphasize the participation in the campaign of Serbian ultras, in particular FC Partizan, whose connections with the GRU unit 29155 were established as part of measures to destabilize Moldova, and FC Crvena Zvezda, which has partner relations with the ultras of Moscow Spartacus, and the sponsor of the team is the russian Gazprom. According to the study, as part of the campaign, the ultras of the teams exerted influence aimed at opposing lithium mining in the country and actualized the issue of Kosovo accordingly.

Also, the material separately analyzes the participation in the campaign of the network of political forces associated with the russian federation, in particular Srpski pokret Dveri, Movement for the restoration of the Kingdom of Serbia (Pokreta obnove Krajevine Srbije), New Democratic Party of Serbia. We are the power of the people and individual environmental organizations, for example, Zashchitymo Yadar y Raђevina (Protect Yadar and Raђevina) and KORS (Coalition for Sustainable Mining).

Analysts note that appeals from the analyzed participants, in particular representatives of extremist organizations and politicians, to the russian federation to "intervene in the situation" against the background of protests are characteristic. Thus, the leader of the aforementioned People's Patrol, Damnjan Knezhevy, made a corresponding statement, noting that "he understands the foreign policy of fraternal russia as non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, but this is already an unstable position if you want to remain a superpower."

Also, on the page on the X network in the past, one of the leaders of the Serbian opposition and the vice-president, headed by the officer of the KGB Andrey Belyaninov, the head of the Osloboђenje movement, Mlađan Đorđević, published a joint photo with by the lieutenant general of the SSR of the russian federation, known as the governor of the "Balkan" and the architect of russian policy in the region, who is involved in the GRU coup attempts in Montenegro and Bulgaria, Leonid Reshetnikov with a call to the president of the russian federation to "intervene in the situation" and if necessary "overthrow Vučić's regime." However, the next day (August 23), Mlađan Đorđević stated that his page was allegedly hacked and deleted the post.

Guildhall spoke to Serbian security experts to assess the situation. Thus, Atlantic Council analyst Ruslan Trad mentioned Reshetnikov's participation in the attempted coup d'état in Bulgaria and stated that intervention measures are a characteristic feature of such activities.

"This is what Reshetnikov does: he intervenes. His main region is the Balkans, and it is expanding russian networks throughout the region. This is what he did in Bulgaria a few years ago (coup attempt - ed.)," the analyst says.

"Relations between Serbia and russia are very specific and are not limited to the prism of "fraternal nations and partners". This is not the first time that Moscow has threatened Vučić - the previous times were also due to the disagreement of the Serbian leader regarding the creation of a russian base in Serbia. Such hybrid tactics are part of Moscow's toolkit.

According to Ruslan Trad, such threats are aimed not only at opposing the lithium mining agreement with the EU but also at opposing Serbia's rapprochement with the EU.

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