ISW predicts how russia might react to AFU operation in Kursk Oblast

Russian troops will try to implement several possible scenarios in order to regain control over the population centers of the Kursk Oblast, which Ukrainian forces occupied in recent days.

This was stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to ISW, the Ukrainian offensive operation in the Kursk Oblast, launched on August 6, is part of a broader effort by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of russia. The institute refused to assess the intentions of this operation in order not to violate the operational security of Ukraine.

The report notes that on August 8, Ukrainian troops continued their rapid advance deep into the Kursk Oblast, already operating at a distance of 35 kilometers from the border with the Sumy Region.

"However, Ukrainian forces do not yet control the entire territory within the limits of russia's maximalist statements about the advancement of the AFU," the report says.

The Kremlin is likely to try to regain control over the territories occupied by Ukrainian forces in order to prevent the further advance of the AFU into russia. The success of the Ukrainian offensive would be a serious blow to putin's long-term ambitions for russia's stability and geopolitical revival.

ISW believes that the russian command has several possible options for action, but it is currently difficult to predict which of them will be implemented. Decisions will depend on an assessment of the number and capabilities of the AFU in the area, which the report does not provide additional data on.

Possible scenarios of the russian federation's reaction:

1. The use of existing conscripts, border guards of the FSB, the russian Guard and other irregular forces to repel Ukrainian troops.
2. Involvement of the Northern group of troops, deployed along the border with Ukraine, to counter the Ukrainian offensive.
3. Redeployment of operational reserves and more combat-capable units from other regions to strengthen positions in the Kursk Oblast.
4. Maintaining forces in the region with the possible redeployment of a significant number of aviation and strike units to increase combat capabilities.

The report also emphasizes that the rapid advance of Ukrainian forces indicates that the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to achieve operational surprise along the border with russia.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the russian mass media write that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are conducting an offensive in the Kursk Oblast of the russian federation, allegedly occupied the outskirts of Sudzha and approached Korenevo. The Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly took control of the Sudzha gas measuring station, through which gas is transited to Europe via Ukraine.

Earlier, on August 7, analysts of the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState talked about the first losses of russians in the Kursk Oblast, which they managed to record.

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