Next year, the economy of the terrorist country of the russian federation will slow down to almost zero, its inflation will exceed initial forecasts by one and a half times, and the supply of imported goods will continue to decrease. The Bank of Russia (Central Bank) laid down such parameters in a new block of macroeconomic forecasts, which it published following the results of the key rate meeting, The Moscow Times reports.
According to the Central Bank forecast, after growing by 3.6% last year, russian GDP will add another 3.5-4% this year, after which the economy may slow down 7-8 times. In 2025, the Central Bank predicts an increase in GDP by 1.5% in the optimistic scenario and only by 0.5% in the pessimistic one.
Following the economic growth, the growth of investments, which is estimated at 7-9% this year, may also drop to zero. In 2025, capital investments will add 2% at best and at worst - not grow at all. Russian consumers will also have to tighten their belts, according to the Central Bank: household spending on the purchase of goods and services will add only 0-1%, according to the regulator's forecast.
The problem for the economy, which has become military-oriented, is accelerating inflation: trillions worth of investments into defense factories and payments to contractors recruited for the war have inflated the money supply in the country at a record speed for 15 years (more than 20% year on year). And the shortage of personnel after sending almost a million people to war gave rise to a "wage chase" - unseen since the second half of the 2000s.
In summary, the rate of growth of consumer prices in russia this year will be 6.5-7% and will exceed the initial expectations of the Central Bank by one and a half times (4.3-4.8%). Inflationary pressure in the economy remains high, and "sustainable inflation accelerated in the second quarter," the head of the Central Bank of russia, Elvira Nabiullina, stated at a press conference.
Additional difficulties were brought by the strengthening of sanctions, due to which banks of friendly countries began to massively block payments to russian companies. The Central Bank sees this, especially in importers, Nabiullina emphasized. According to the Central Bank of the russian federation, the supply of goods to russia from abroad by the end of the year will decrease by USD 12 billion. Their final volume – USD 291 billion - will be 15% lower than before the annexation of Crimea.
In order to curb inflation, the Central Bank raised the key rate from 16 to 18% and, according to Nabiullina, does not rule out new increases. The russian economy is in a state of "maximum overheating in 16 years," and labor force and production capacity reserves are "virtually exhausted," she said.
"The lack of these resources could lead to a situation where economic growth slows despite all efforts to stimulate demand, and all the stimulus goes into accelerating inflation. In essence, this is a stagflation scenario, and it can only be stopped at the cost of a deep recession. Today's additional strengthening of our policies will prevent such a scenario," said the head of the Central Bank of the terrorist country.
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