Russian state media preparing russians for a long-term war – ISW

Russian state media have edited comments by the deputy chairman of the russian security council, Dmitry Medvedev, saying he said that a Ukrainian state would not exist until 2034. This is likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to prepare the russian public for a protracted war in Ukraine by promising that russia will complete its goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood within ten years.

This follows from a statement by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Thus, it is indicated that the russian mass media edited the comments made by Medvedev in an interview with the russian publication Argumenty y Fakty on July 17.

Medvedev said that it was "not for nothing" that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg suggested that Ukraine could join the alliance within the next ten years and concluded that Ukraine would "never" join NATO, as NATO leadership will change by 2034 and, therefore, "it's quite possible that the infamous country 404 [a derogatory use of the computer "error" code 404, meaning that Ukraine is not a real country] will also not exist.

Analysts pointed out that Medvedev did not directly say that Ukraine would cease to exist by 2034 – rather, that was a tangential implication of his statement – ​​but russian media, including the Kremlin's TASS news channel, immediately began publishing articles with headlines such as "Medvedev admitted, that Ukraine will cease to exist in 2034" and "Medvedev predicted the disappearance of Ukraine by 2034."

The report notes that the way the russian media is currently editing Medvedev's statements has several implications. In particular, the direct assumption that russia will be able to "destroy Ukraine" by 2034 is a promise to the russian public that russia will be able to win the war and achieve its goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood within a decade.

It is explained that this creates cautious information conditions and public expectations for a war that will last another decade but which will end in the desired "victory" for russia.

"This russian narrative also directly and decisively undermines individual attempts by some Kremlin officials to suggest that russia is ready to "negotiate" "peace" with Ukraine, and further emphasizes that the only desired end goal of the war for the Kremlin is the destruction of the Ukrainian state and people," the Institute emphasizes.

The report also added that russian leader Vladimir Putin had carefully articulated his goals in the war as such and demanded that Ukrainian troops withdraw from territory not controlled by russian forces as a precondition for any "peace" talks.

"Neither Ukraine nor the West can count on negotiations with russia on russian terms if russian terms foresee the destruction of Ukraine and its people over the next ten years," the analysts emphasized.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in order to isolate the information field in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the number of fake "media" spreading russian propaganda is increasing.

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