ISW explains why putin talking about nuclear weapons for two days in a row

For two days in a row, the leader of the terrorist country of russia, vladimir putin, has been talking about nuclear weapons, in particular about the possibility of "lowering the threshold" for the use of nuclear weapons in the russian nuclear doctrine. ISW believes that putin is making nuclear threats to discourage further Western support for Ukraine and to undermine the international community's efforts to agree on his strategic vision for Ukraine's victory in russia's war of aggression.

This is stated in an analytical post by experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On June 21, putin said during a speech to russian graduating officers that russia plans to further develop its nuclear triad as a "guarantee of strategic deterrence" and maintaining the balance of power in the world.

The russian leader noted that russia is also working on increasing its conventional combat potential and defense industrial production.

During a press conference in Vietnam on June 20, putin said that russia was considering "lowering the threshold" for the use of nuclear weapons in russian nuclear doctrine and that a possible future strategic defeat of russian forces on the battlefield in Ukraine would lead to "the end of statehood (of russia - Ed.)".

ISW notes that putin may have mistakenly equated russia's defeat in Ukraine with an existential threat to the russian state to refer to an "exceptional case" where current russian nuclear doctrine would allow the use of nuclear weapons.

ISW also emphasized that putin's June 21 statement appears to be a continuation of his information operation aimed at sabotaging Western efforts to achieve a common strategic goal of a decisive victory over the russian invasion. According to the plan of the West, the victory of Ukraine should be the ultimate goal of the war.

The threat of nuclear escalation is a key aspect of russia's ability to manipulate foreign decision-makers, and it is highly unlikely that it will lead to actual nuclear escalation through nuclear and conventional deterrence.

ISW Key Takeaways for June 21:

Russian president vladimir putin continues to invoke nuclear threats as part of his ongoing information campaign to discourage further Western support for Ukraine and undermine the international community's efforts to cohere its strategic vision for defeating russia’s war of conquest against Ukraine.

Putin and russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continued to emphasize russia's initiative to create an alternative "Eurasian security architecture," likely as part of ongoing efforts to establish a coalition of friendly states to act as an alternative to the West and undermine NATO.

The russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) criticized South Korean and Japanese objections to the russian-North Korean strategic partnership agreement and directly tied the agreement to Russian President Vladimir Putin's "Eurasian security architecture" initiative.

Ukrainian forces struck oil refineries and military targets in Bryansk and Astrakhan Regions, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Crimea on the night of June 20 to 21.

Moscow State University (MGU) announced on June 21 that it has opened enrollment for a master's program on "strategic communications, information, and hybrid wars" under the guidance of russian ultranationalist and former State Duma Deputy Zakhar Prilepin and other select Duma deputies.

Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupiansk, southwest of Svatove, and west and southwest of Donetsk City.

The russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be taking steps to address known bureaucratic issues as part of its efforts to formalize irregular russian formations.

An investigation by russian opposition outlet Verstka highlights how russia is importing russian judges to serve in courts in occupied Ukraine, supporting russian efforts to control the judiciary while also providing a convenient cover for the resettlement of russian citizens into occupied Ukraine.

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