According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), russian ruler vladimir putin is trying to promote his "theory of victory", which is aimed at a war of attrition in Ukraine.
The official ISW portal informs about this.
Kremlin ruler vladimir putin on June 7 formulated the so-called "theory of victory" in Ukraine, which predicts that russian forces will be able to continue a gradual creeping offensive indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful significant counteroffensive operations and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
Putin said after his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that russia does not need to conduct another call-up of reservists, similar to the partial mobilization in September 2022, because russia is not trying to quickly achieve its military goals in Ukraine.
He acknowledged that the current russian military contingent involved in the war in Ukraine (reportedly all of russia's combat-capable ground forces as of January 2024) would not be sufficient for a quick victory, but suggested that russian forces are instead taking a more gradual approach.
Putin said that russian forces are aiming to "displace" Ukrainian forces "from those territories that should be under russian control", and therefore russia does not need to conduct another wave of mobilization.
The Kremlin chief argued that russia's crypto-mobilization efforts are sufficient for such an approach, and that russia has already recruited 160,000 new troops in 2024 (a figure consistent with reports that the russian armed forces are recruiting between 20,000 and 30,000 new recruits per month).
Analysts point out that putin's assessment that gradual russian advances will allow russia to achieve its goals in Ukraine is based on the assumption that Ukrainian forces will not be able to liberate any significant territory captured by russian forces and that the russian military will be able to sustain offensive operations during which gradual tactical successes will be achieved, despite heavy losses.
Putin's assessment is supported by the recent months of delays in Western security assistance and corresponding restrictions on Ukraine's material support, which allowed russian forces to capture and hold the initiative along the entire perimeter of hostilities and conduct successive offensive operations throughout the territory of eastern Ukraine, as a result of which the occupiers achieved gradual tactical victories.
Putin's June 7 comments confirm ISW's earlier assessment that limiting Western support would encourage putin to continue creeping offensive operations indefinitely if faster operations that would produce swift decisive results appear out of reach.
This strategy relies heavily on russia's ability to hold the initiative across the entire theater of operations, which Ukrainian forces can seize if Ukraine resolves its current human resource challenges and receives sufficient, timely, and consistent Western security assistance.
"Thus, russian efforts to prevent Ukraine from accumulating the personnel and resources necessary to seize the initiative are part of a war of attrition approach," the analysts noted.
ISW continues to believe that Ukraine should seize this initiative as soon as possible, as russian forces receive various benefits from holding the initiative, including the ability to conduct a war of attrition strategy.
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