ISW predicts how ATACMS missiles will affect the course of the war

Acquiring long-range ATACMS missiles in significant numbers will help Ukrainian forces degrade the logistics of the russian occupiers and pose a threat to their airfields deep in the rear. However, a month's delay may give russia time to reduce the potential operational effect for Ukraine, experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note.

According to the ISW report, cluster munition-armed versions of ATACMS missiles would allow Ukrainian forces to strike airfields more effectively than individual missile attacks on individual aircraft. These strikes could force russian forces to move aircraft away from the front lines. However, this would likely involve mostly rotorcraft rather than all of russia's fixed-wing aircraft, which have a much longer range.

Russian troops used rotorcraft effectively when repelling Ukrainian mechanized attacks during Ukraine's counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia Region in the summer of 2023. However, the russians are now using fewer rotorcraft to support ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles could also pose a significant threat to russian ammunition depots in rear areas. ISW believes that after the use of ATACMS in October 2023, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the occupation depots, the russians could have prepared for a repeat attack by strengthening or deploying depots throughout the occupied territories of Ukraine.

"Ukrainian strikes on russian logistics bases or russian aviation in deep rear areas are likely to have a significant operational impact, but only if they are successfully coordinated with Ukrainian ground operations to take advantage of russia's degraded capabilities as a result of the strikes," the report says.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the United States secretly sent long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March.

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