Russians can step up offensive operations and strikes using "window" before US aid arrives - ISW

Russian occupation forces are likely to step up current offensive operations, as well as missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks, to take advantage of the "window" of restrictions on Ukrainian military means, which is closing.

This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

So, the ISW says that russian troops continued, and in some areas intensified, ongoing offensive operations, probably using abnormally dry spring conditions and a lack of Ukrainian equipment before the arrival of promised Western security assistance.

The russian occupiers also tried to exploit the shortcomings of Ukraine's air defense in an attempt to destroy the Ukrainian power system and inflict long-term damage on Ukrainian infrastructure and defense-industrial potential.

At the same time, after the announcement of the American assistance package, the russian military command will most likely intensify offensive operations, as well as missile and unmanned strikes to achieve significant operational results, which, of course, will become more difficult to achieve against well-equipped Ukrainian forces.

Analysts note that russian troops may still be able to achieve significant success operationally in the coming weeks and may give priority to sections of the front, where the Ukrainian defense looks relatively unstable, especially west of Avdiivka, or sections of the front, where russian troops are within range of an operationally significant object, for example, near Chasiv Yar.

As noted, russian forces may hope that continued and possibly intensified missile and drone strikes will be able to collapse the Ukrainian energy grid and force Ukraine to contend with a humanitarian crisis alongside its ongoing defensive operations. Russian forces could also shift their target set to strike Ukrainian transportation infrastructure to constrain Ukraine’s ability to sufficiently distribute manpower and materiel to critical sectors of the front.

Russian forces will likely also decide to exploit poor Ukrainian air defense coverage along the front and intensify glide bomb strikes in the coming weeks in hopes of causing widespread damage to Ukrainian defensive positions before it becomes riskier for russian aircraft to conduct these strikes amid an improved Ukrainian air defense umbrella.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the lack of funds for Ukrainian air defense allows the russians to quickly advance at the front.

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