The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 stands at 806.9 million tons, which is 1.6 million tons less than the previous estimate. This was reported by grain market analyst Oleksandr Korenytsyn. According to him, the decrease is linked to reduced wheat production in China by 2 million tons (to 140 million tons), in Brazil by 0.5 million tons (to 7.5 million tons), and in Argentina by 3 million tons (to 19.7 million tons). This decline will be partially offset by an increase of one million tons in EU countries, bringing their total to 138.3 million tons.
Meanwhile, the global trade forecast has grown by half a million tons and now totals 213.5 million tons – driven by a 0.7 million ton increase in U.S. exports (to 23.8 million tons). Forecasted global ending stocks for 2025/26 have fallen by 1.4 million tons, now standing at 260.1 million tons – the lowest level since 2015/16.
As for Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, 4,396.2 thousand hectares of wheat have been threshed – 88% of the total sown area. The average yield is 43.2 centners per hectare. As of mid-August 2025, 18,985.7 thousand tons have been harvested, and 758.8 thousand tons exported – 3.8 times higher than the previous month’s figure. The main importing countries were Indonesia, Egypt, and Vietnam. In total, 1,491.6 thousand tons of wheat have been exported during the 2024/25 marketing year.
Global Production 2025/26 (Forecast)
According to Oleksandr Korenytsyn, the global corn production forecast has been raised by 24.9 million tons to 1,288.6 million tons. This growth is attributed to increased output in the U.S. by 26.3 million tons (to 425.3 million tons), as well as in Ukraine by 1.5 million tons (to 25.5 million tons) and Canada by 0.3 million tons (to 15.3 million tons). Corn production volumes in the EU are expected to fall by 2 million tons (to 58 million tons). The global corn export forecast for 2025/26 has been raised by 5.1 million tons (to 200.9 million tons). Global ending stocks are projected to rise by 10.4 million tons (to 282.6 million tons).
According to the State Customs Service, as of mid-August 2025, Ukraine exported 182 thousand tons of corn – 1.7 times less than in the previous month. The main importers were the Netherlands, South Korea, and Greece. In total, 799.7 thousand tons of corn have been exported in the 2025/26 marketing year.
Ukraine has harvested 1,247.2 thousand hectares of barley (90% of the planted area). The Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture reported an average yield of 37.9 centners per hectare, with 4,732.0 thousand tons collected and 206.2 thousand tons exported – 23.3 times more than the previous month. The main importers were China, Turkey, and Vietnam. During the 2025/26 marketing year, 470.1 thousand tons of barley have been exported.
"Sunflower seeds exports amounted to 0.3 thousand tons (up 21% compared to the previous month), mainly to the United Kingdom, Turkey, and Finland. During the 2024/25 marketing year, 68.5 thousand tons of sunflower seeds were exported. Meanwhile, sunflower oil exports totaled 73.7 thousand tons (3.6 times less than in the previous month), primarily to Spain, France, and Italy. In total, 4,648.1 thousand tons of sunflower oil have been exported during the 2024/25 marketing year", said analyst Oleksandr Korenytsyn.
Rapeseed exports reached 222.3 thousand tons (there were no shipments during the same period last month). The top three importing countries were the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany. In total, 365.3 thousand tons of rapeseed have been exported in the 2025/26 marketing year.
In addition, the global soybean production forecast has been reduced by 1.3 million tons to 426.4 million tons.
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