Russia can produce one "Oreshnik" in 2-2.5 months - Defense Express
The strike of the aggressor state of the russian federation on Bila Tserkva with an “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) on the night of May 24 may indicate an increase in their production. At the same time, based on data from Ukrainian intelligence, analysts note that the production rate is approximately one "Oreshnik" every 2 to 2.5 months.
This is reported by the Ukrainian military portal Defense Express.
The "Oreshnik" MLBM strike on Bila Tserkva may indicate an increase in their production. This, in particular, corresponds to information from Ukrainian intelligence regarding the number of these missiles and plans for their production, which were made earlier.
For example, in October 2025, it was reported that russia planned to manufacture up to six "Oreshnik" MRBMs in 2026. Following the second strike with this weapon on Lviv (January 9, 2026), Oleh Luhovskyi, First Deputy Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, stated that russia possesses no more than 3–4 missiles but plans to launch serial production of this MRBMin 2026 at a rate of five or more units per year.
At the same time, according to data from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, as of April 2026, russia had up to 10 "Oreshnik" MRBMs in stock. As the publication notes, "up to" should clearly be interpreted as a maximum limit, not an approximate figure.
"Nevertheless, this indicates the start of small-scale production of these missiles, as a broader range was used instead of terms like 'several' or 'up to 5.' Thus, if the ‘Oreshnik’ was not yet in serial production at the time of its second use, the strike on May 24 could have been carried out after production had already begun,” Defense Express noted.
Analysts add that, at the same time, the total number of these MRBMs in the russian federation remains minimal, and production is proceeding at a rate of about one "Oreshnik" every 2–2.5 months.
"And thus, if mass production of this MRBM began sometime around February-March of this year, russia likely managed to produce only one missile. In other words, the estimate from the beginning of the year remains valid with a high degree of probability—3–4 "Oreshniks" in the russian arsenal as of the end of May," the military portal concluded.
As a reminder, the Ukrainian Air Forces confirmed that the russian occupation forces launched only one “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile, which struck Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv Region on the night of May 23–24.
The "Oreshnik," whose launch has been confirmed by the military, dropped dummy warheads over Bila Tserkva. They struck a garage cooperative, but there were no casualties.