Russia planning sabotage against NATO countries and wants to shift blame to Ukraine - ISW

The aggressor country of russia and Belarus may be preparing special operations against Poland's critical infrastructure in order to then blame Ukraine for them. This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On September 30, the russian Foreign Intelligence Service stated that Ukraine is allegedly planning an attack on facilities in Poland "under the flag of another state" in order to blame Moscow and Minsk. According to the russian version, Ukrainian and Polish intelligence services are supposed to send a group of saboteurs to Poland, formed from representatives of the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment.

According to this scenario, the group will pose as russian and Belarusian special forces after being detained by Polish security forces, and pro-Ukrainian groups will blame russia and Belarus for the attack. The russian federation also suggests that Kyiv may simultaneously organize another attack to enhance the effect of the provocation.

ISW analysts regard such statements as the Kremlin's preparation for an information cover-up of its own possible sabotage. In their opinion, Moscow regularly uses its foreign intelligence to spread fake accusations of future attacks in order to sow doubts and reduce support for Ukraine from its partners.

"The Kremlin is probably creating information conditions to accuse Ukraine of future attacks that russia itself may carry out against Poland or other NATO states," ISW noted.

Earlier, on September 26, russia had already accused Ukraine of allegedly provocative drone flights over the territory of Poland and Romania, although local authorities blamed russia.

Recently, unidentified drones have been regularly recorded in several European countries. On the night of September 27, they were seen again in Denmark, over several airports and a military base. Similar incidents were also recorded in Finland, over the Rovaniemi hydroelectric power plant, where a flight ban has been in effect since the summer.

On the night of September 10, Polish airspace was violated by russian drones during russia's attack on Ukraine. This was the first time that Polish aviation shot down drones over its territory.

On September 13, russian drones once again penetrated the territory of Romania. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, one of the drones flew almost 10 km into the airspace of a NATO country and remained there for about 50 minutes. Wreckage of the drones was also found on the beaches of Bulgaria and Latvia.

On September 19, three russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland without permission and remained there for 12 minutes. On September 23, Denmark's main airport in Copenhagen was temporarily closed for four hours due to drones. Police did not shoot down any of the drones. The country called the incident the most serious attack on critical infrastructure and linked it to a series of russian drone incursions in Europe. That same evening, drones were spotted over Norway's main airport.