US sanctions pose threat to russian oil export chains — IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that new U.S. sanctions against russia could significantly disrupt the supply of russian oil to the world market.

According to Reuters, this is stated in the IEA's monthly report.

The document states that the new U.S. sanctions affected companies that handled more than a third of russian oil exports in 2024.

At the same time, the IEA has so far decided to refrain from taking into account U.S. sanctions in its supply forecasts.

According to the agency's forecast, in 2025 there will be a surplus of oil on the market, as supply growth exceeds restrained growth in global demand.

"We maintain our supply forecasts for both countries until the full impact of sanctions becomes more apparent, but the new measures could result in a tightening of crude and product balances," the IEA report says.

Reuters noted that the IEA's current approach to assessing the impact on russian supply is much more cautious than it was shortly after russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the introduction of the first major anti-russian sanctions.

In 2022, the agency predicted that 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of russian supply could not enter the market due to sanctions and buyer reluctance. At that time, russian oil exports did not decrease by the projected amount.

Recall that on January 10, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the introduction of new sanctions against russia. A large-scale package of restrictive measures affected Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, oil traders, a number of companies and tankers from the so-called "shadow fleet".

As it became known later, 143 tankers from the russian "shadow fleet" fell under U.S. sanctions. In 2024, they provided 42% of seaborne oil exports from russia.

And on January 8, Reuters reported, citing sources, that China's largest port operator had closed its ports to tankers providing "shadow" exports of russian oil.