Cabinet approves demographic development strategy of Ukraine until 2040, which foresees increase in population to 33.9 million people

The Cabinet of Ministers approved the demographic development strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2040, which foresees an increase in the population from 31.1 million people in 2024 to 33.9 million people in 2040.

This is stated in the order No. 922 of September 30, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

The document states that demographic challenges and threats to the development of Ukraine are intensifying due to: a rapid reduction in the number of the population due to depopulation (exceeding the number of deaths over the number of newborns) and large-scale labor migration, which often turns into permanent, temporary occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine, new challenges and threats caused by armed aggression.

According to the State Statistics Service, the population of Ukraine as of the date of the All-Ukrainian population census (December 5, 2001) was 48.5 million people. According to estimates of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, on January 1, 2022, the population of Ukraine within the borders of 1991 was 42 million people, by July 2024 - 35.8 million people, including in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian authorities - 31.1 million people.

According to the Institute of Demography, taking into account the challenges and threats that will continue even after the end of hostilities or the termination or cancellation of martial law in Ukraine, the population of Ukraine may decrease to 28.9 million people by 2041, and to 25.2 million people by 2051.

The strategy envisages an increase in the permanent population of Ukraine from 31.1 million in 2024 to 33.9 million in 2040.

For this, in particular, it is envisaged to create conditions for migratory growth of the population and decrease the level of outflow of Ukrainians abroad, while it is emphasized that the return should take place "safely and with dignity".

The document also states that if the return of persons, who were forced to leave Ukraine as a result of armed aggression, and the involvement of Ukrainians abroad will not be sufficient to compensate for the further natural reduction of the population and the labor shortage in the labor market, the migration policy in the future may extend to the involvement of immigrants. One of the tools of such involvement can be the education of foreign students, who partially adapt in Ukraine.

The strategy also provides for the creation of conditions for increasing the birth rate.

It is noted that for the natural recovery of the population, it is necessary to increase the birth rate to 2.1-2.2 children per woman.

In addition, the strategy envisages a reduction in premature mortality.

The target indicator for reducing the premature mortality rate is to reduce the probability of death under the age of 65 to the average for EU countries: 16.3% - among men, 8.3% - for women (in Ukraine, according to 2020 data, the corresponding indicators were respectively 40% and 16.8%).

The strategy envisages an increase in average life expectancy from 64.1 years (men - 57.3, women - 70.9) in 2024 to 73.5 years (men - 68.5, women - 78) in 2040.

To this end, it is proposed to popularize a healthy lifestyle, ensure early detection and prevention of diseases that most often lead to premature death or loss of health, increase the level of availability of medical care and its quality, and develop the infrastructure for healthy leisure.

The strategy also provides for the activation of the maximum number of citizens, who can work in the labor market, in particular, to promote the return to the labor market of persons with disabilities, the elderly, internally displaced persons, and veterans, and to increase the level of employment of young people after completing their studies.

The Ministry of Social Policy is instructed to develop and submit to the Cabinet of Ministers a draft plan of measures for the implementation of the Strategy in 2024-2027 and to report on the state of its implementation by May 1 every year.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in March, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that every Ukrainian family should have at least three children in order for Ukraine to have prospects.

At the same time, Shmyhal emphasized that today, in the conditions of russian aggression, every Ukrainian hryvnia earned by the Ukrainian budget goes to support the Security and Defense Forces, and it is now possible to financially support the birth rate in Ukraine only by attracting funds from international partners.