Russia to increase defense spending by USD 30 billion in 2025 - ISW

The russian government plans to further increase defense spending, which also funds russia's war in Ukraine, in 2025, although Kremlin officials appear to emphasize planned social spending, while avoiding discussion of increased defense spending.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Thus, the russian Cabinet of Ministers approved the draft federal budget for 2025-2027 on September 29 and will submit it to the State Duma by October 1. The draft budget states that russia's federal revenues are expected to grow by almost 12% in 2025 compared to 2024, and the share of non-oil and gas revenues in the federal budget will increase to 73%.

Bloomberg reported on September 23 that it had seen a draft three-year budget that showed the Russian government plans to spend RUB 13.2 trillion (about USD 140 billion) on defense in 2025, up from RUB 10.4 trillion (about USD 110 billion), planned for 2024.

Bloomberg also stated that russia plans to spend approximately 40% on national defense and internal security in 2025 - more than spending on education, health care, social policy and the federal economy combined.

The Kremlin will reportedly increase spending on classified elements from RUB 11.1 trillion (about USD 117 billion) in 2024 to RUB 12.9 trillion (about USD 136 billion) in 2025.

In addition, russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on September 24 that the government plans to fulfill "all social obligations to citizens" and emphasized the planned financing of medicine, pensions and national projects.

At the same time, russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov admitted that "significant resources" are being directed to russia's "special military operation" (war in Ukraine), but emphasized that RUB 40 trillion (about USD 424 billion) will go to 19 national projects over six years - twice more than the funding allocated for the period from 2019 to 2024. Siluanov also emphasized that russia plans to spend RUB 180 billion (about USD 1.9 billion) on the modernization of communal infrastructure and preferential mortgage programs.

"Kremlin officials probably fear war fatigue among the russian population and are trying to bolster public support for the war by emphasizing the Kremlin's focus on social projects," ISW analysts summarized.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, meanwhile, on September 25, russian dictator vladimir putin proposed to change russia's nuclear doctrine, allowing the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a mass drone attack on the russian federation. He also suggested that aggression by a non-nuclear-weapon state involving a nuclear power should be treated as a joint attack.