Russia loses significantly more equipment at Avdiyivka than at Vuhledar - ISW

The army of the aggressor country of the russian federation suffered heavy losses of equipment around Avdiyivka. It is likely to undermine the offensive potential of the russian federation in the long term.

This is announced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a regular report.

Military analysts note that on October 26, the spokesman of the Tavria Group of Ukrainian Forces, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, said that since October 10, russian troops had suffered 5,000 killed and wounded and 400 units of armored vehicles near Avdiyivka and Maryinka (southwest of Donetsk).

Satellite images confirmed that the russian military lost at least 109 pieces of military equipment, mainly armored combat vehicles and tanks, in the Avdiyivka area between October 10 and 20.

A Ukrainian reserve officer said russian forces appear to be using less armored vehicles near Avdiyivka, although they may be regrouping to resume large mechanized assaults, as was the case between the initial mechanized assaults on October 10 and the second series of large mechanized assaults on October 19 and 20.

The russian command has moved additional forces to the Avdiyivka area of the front to compensate for significant manpower losses and to preserve the ability of russian forces to support the ongoing offensive effort.

"However, it will probably be difficult for the russian command to compensate for the loss of russian equipment, particularly armored vehicles," the analysts noted.

Thus, large-scale losses and shortages of russian equipment in the first year of the full-scale invasion significantly limited russia's ability to conduct effective mechanized maneuver warfare during the winter-spring 2023 offensive of russian forces, contributing to further losses during the chaotic mechanized assaults near Vuhledar, Donetsk Region, in January and February 2023.

Heavy losses around Vuhledar likely prevented the russian command from launching sustained mechanized assaults in other parts of Ukraine later in the 2023 winter-spring offensive. The recent losses of russian equipment around Avdiyivka appear to be much greater than the previous losses of equipment around Vuhledar.

It remains unclear whether the prospect of further losses of heavy equipment will deter the russian command from launching another series of large mechanized assaults near Avdiyivka.

Russia has gradually mobilized elements of its defense industrial base to address equipment shortages, but has not done so on a scale remotely sufficient to compensate for the cumulative losses of russian equipment in Ukraine.

The recent losses of russian equipment around Avdiyivka will likely lead to further shortages of russian equipment and hamper any progress the russian military has made in addressing the problems of deteriorating mechanized maneuver capabilities.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, russia lost more than 100 pieces of equipment near Avdiyivka.