Protraction in tank delivery to Ukraine might cost losing its ability to conduct counteroffensive this winter

Delays in the supply of tanks and armored personnel carriers could cost Ukraine a counteroffensive this winter, with Russian forces preparing to launch their own offensive in the Luhansk Region and stepping up operations in the Bakhmut area.

This follows from a statement by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukraine could still launch a long-planned counteroffensive this winter, which would somewhat mitigate the consequences of the West's delay in providing the necessary aid. However, the delay in launching this counteroffensive has so far allowed the Russians to impose conditions that will make it more difficult and costly.

According to the analysts, the delay also allowed Russia to create conditions for its offensive, which significantly complicated the Ukrainian campaign plan.

If Ukraine does not already have the equipment it needs to launch a counteroffensive, it will likely have to wait many weeks for Western tanks to arrive in sufficient numbers to support a renewed effort, experts write.

They suggest the delay is likely to be extended due to weather conditions. Both the Russians and Ukrainians will have to take into account the spring off-road season, which is likely to fall in March and April, which will make a rapid mechanized counteroffensive difficult, if not impossible.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on January 25, Germany announced the provision of Leopard II tanks to Ukraine.

On January 24, Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte said that his country is ready to transfer 18 Leopard II tanks to Ukraine.

On January 14, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak approved the plan to send 12 Challenger II tanks to Ukraine.