Business positively assessed results of its own economic activity for 4th consecutive month, improving them in annual terms

In June, business gave positive assessments of the results of its own economic activity for the fourth consecutive month, improving them in annual terms.

This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

The optimism of respondents from all surveyed sectors was contributed by the activation of foreign financial assistance receipts, a gradual decrease in fuel prices, a stable situation in the energy sector, stable consumer demand, and a seasonal factor.

At the same time, the further destruction of production capacities, logistics, and energy infrastructure, an increase in business costs for labor amid a shortage of qualified personnel, as well as a slight increase in inflation and exchange rate expectations.

In June 2026, the BAEI was 50.4 compared to 52.1 in May 2026 (in June 2025 - 50).

Construction enterprises had the highest assessment of their performance among all sectors for the fourth consecutive time, due to favorable weather conditions, sufficient funding for road construction and repair, and restoration of damaged infrastructure: the sectoral index in June was 54.5 compared to 55.3 in May and 50.4 in June 2025. Respondents continued to expect an increase in construction volumes and new orders, as well as in the volume of purchases of raw materials and supplies.

Survey participants expected an increase in the volume of purchases of contractor services against the background of weakening assessments of their increasing cost and worsening availability of contractors.

Industrial enterprises expected business activity at the level of the previous month against the background of maintaining a stable situation in the energy sector and stable domestic demand: the sectoral index in June was 50 (in May - 52.4, in June 2025 - 50.4).

Industrialists maintained positive, albeit somewhat lower, expectations for the volume of manufactured products and new orders for products.

However, unlike the previous month, a decrease in the volume of new export orders for products was expected.

At the same time, respondents were set to reduce the volume of work in progress, finished product residues, as well as the volume of raw materials and materials inventories.

Trade enterprises renewed positive assessments of the results of their current activities due to lower fuel prices, sufficient supply of goods and revival of consumer demand: the sectoral index in June was 50.6 compared to 49.6 in May (in June 2025 - 52).

Trade companies assessed the volume of trade turnover more optimistically, and also improved expectations regarding the volume of purchases of goods for sale.

At the same time, unlike the previous month, respondents were set to reduce inventories / balances of goods for sale.

Further, assessments of a decrease in trade margins weakened.

Service enterprises for the fourth consecutive month gave positive assessments of current business activity due to a stable situation in the energy system, the establishment of logistics and a gradual decrease in fuel prices: the sectoral index in June was 50.2 compared to 53.1 in May and was higher than the indicator in June 2025 (48.3).

Respondents weakened expectations regarding an increase in the volume of services provided, new orders for services, as well as services in the process of execution.

Respondents from all sectors expected a further slowdown in the rate of increase in purchase prices, prices for raw materials and supplies, prices/tariffs for own products/services, as well as goods purchased for sale.

The situation on the labor market remains difficult.

Only respondents from construction maintained their positive expectations regarding the total number of employees, while enterprises from other sectors were set to further reduce staff, most of all in industry.

The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from June 3 to 22.

587 enterprises participated in it.

Among the surveyed enterprises, 45.1% were industrial companies, 25.9% were service companies, 23% were trade companies, and 6% were construction companies.

32% of respondents were large enterprises, 29% were medium-sized enterprises, and 39% were small enterprises.

34.8% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.5% – only export operations, 17.5% – only import operations, 38.2% – do not carry out foreign economic operations.

The survey results reflect only the opinion of respondents – heads of enterprises, and not the assessment of the NBU.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the monthly business activity expectations index is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends.

It is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance indicators compared to the previous month.

Based on the respondents' answers, monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated – sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the country's economic development for the month. The index value at level 5.0 is neutral.

Expectations are positive if the index value is above the neutral level.