ICU downgrades its hryvnia exchange rate forecast for end of year from 45 UAH/USD to 45.8 UAH/USD

Analysts at ICU have lowered their year-end forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate from 45 UAH/USD to 45.8 UAH/USD.

This is stated in the company’s materials, according to the Ukrainian News agency.

It is noted that the situation with external accounts has remained unchanged for several years in a row. The company’s analysts continue to believe that the significant current account deficit poses substantial risks in the medium term, but it does not create significant immediate challenges thanks to sufficient external financing. The European Union’s approval of the Ukraine Support Loan (USL) is a significant relief, as it enables the Ministry of Finance to fully cover the budget deficit and allows the NBU to maintain reserves at the level of USD 50–60 billion.

"The significant growth of imbalances in the foreign exchange market since the beginning of the year is cause for concern. In the first five months of 2026, the central bank spent USD 18.1 billion on currency sales interventions—significantly higher than the USD 14.3 billion spent during the same period last year. For the full year, the increase in interventions compared to last year’s figure could amount to USD 6–7 billion, with their total volume approaching USD 42–43 billion. This will likely prompt the NBU to slightly accelerate the pace of the hryvnia’s depreciation. In light of this, we have revised our exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026 to 45.8 UAH/USD (compared to the previous forecast of 45 UAH/USD)," the company reported.

It is noted that the budget deficit in 2026 will be fully covered by external financial assistance, and this year the Ministry of Finance will be able to reduce domestic debt for the first time since the start of the full-scale war. As in previous reports and forecasts, it is assumed that security risks will not change fundamentally in the medium term—a peace agreement will not be signed, but the enemy will not make any new territorial gains either.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, analysts at ICU forecast GDP growth of 0.8% with inflation at 9.4% in 2026.