Businesses increase their devaluation expectations and for first time predicted hryvnia to euro exchange rate in 12 months
Businesses have increased devaluation expectations and for the first time predicted the hryvnia exchange rate to the euro in 12 months.
This is stated in the report of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency informs.
Respondents predicted an increase in the production of goods and services and strengthened positive assessments of the development of their own enterprises. Inflation expectations remained unchanged, while exchange rate expectations slightly increased.
The enterprises' Business Expectations Index (BEI) increased to 105.8% compared to 102.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (hereinafter - the fourth quarter).
Participants of the survey improved their estimates of all components of the BEI, most of all in terms of investment spending on machinery, equipment, inventory and construction works, as well as in terms of total sales of own products. Businesses in 10 surveyed regions and in the vast majority of activities expected a revival in business activity. For the second quarter in a row, managers' cautious estimates of the future total number of employees continued to soften.
The hostilities and their consequences remain the dominant factor limiting the ability of enterprises to increase production. The lack of skilled workers remains a significant factor. The impact of too high energy prices was expected to increase more than any other factor.
Businesses have improved their estimates of the volume of production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months: the balance of responses is 0.6% (in the fourth quarter - minus 1.8%).
The increase in production was expected by respondents from eight regions. Positive expectations were demonstrated by enterprises of energy and water supply, agriculture, manufacturing, transport and communications; enterprises operating exclusively in the domestic market and those engaged in export-import operations; medium and large enterprises. Negative - trade enterprises, small enterprises, as well as those that carry out only import and only export operations.
The annual inflation rate expected in the next 12 months was 11.1%, unchanged from the previous survey.
The survey participants slightly increased their exchange rate expectations - up to 45 UAH/USD. USD compared to 44.27 UAH/USD in the previous quarter. The share of respondents who expected the hryvnia/US dollar exchange rate to fluctuate between 45 and 45 UAH/USD increased significantly.
For the first time, respondents predicted the hryvnia to euro exchange rate in 12 months: the average expected value was 54 UAH/EUR. 42.9% of respondents expected the exchange rate to be in the range of 52.01-54 UAH/EUR.
The quarterly survey was conducted from January 29 to February 27, 2026. The survey involved 664 enterprises from 21 regions of the country (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as well as Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson Regions). Among the surveyed enterprises, 21.1% are trade companies, 19.1% are manufacturing companies, 14.5% are agricultural companies, 13.9% are transport and communications companies, 5.9% are mining companies, 4.8% are energy and water supply companies, 3.2% are construction companies, and 17.6% are other companies; 30.4% of respondents are large enterprises, 37.7% are medium-sized enterprises, and 31.9% are small enterprises.
The results of the surveys reflect only the opinion of the respondents - the heads of enterprises, and not the estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the Business Expectations Index is an aggregate indicator of the expected development of enterprises in the next 12 months. It is calculated based on the results of surveys of enterprises as the arithmetic mean of the balance sheets of responses on the financial and economic condition of enterprises, total sales of own products, investment expenditures for construction works, machinery, equipment and inventory, and the number of employees. The index value above 100 means the prevalence of positive economic sentiment in society, and below 100 - negative economic sentiment.