Business significantly improved its assessment of its performance - March enterprise survey
In March, business resumed positive assessments of its own economic performance, improving them both monthly and annually.
This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, with the exception of a forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
For the first time since May 2025, the assessments of enterprises in all surveyed sectors were optimistic. This was facilitated by the gradual normalization of the situation in the energy sector, the revival of consumer demand, the receipt of international financial assistance, ensuring the stability of the foreign exchange market, as well as the seasonal factor. At the same time, the increasing shelling of critical facilities, increased inflation expectations, and the shortage of qualified personnel remained restraining factors.
In March 2026, the BAEI was 52.7 compared to 45.9 in February 2026 (in March 2025 - 51.8).
Construction enterprises had the highest assessments of their performance among all sectors, given the favorable weather conditions and the need for road rehabilitation: the sectoral index in March increased to 55 compared to 46.6 in February and 52.9 in March 2025. Unlike the previous month, respondents expected an increase in the volume of construction. A significant increase in the volume of new orders, purchases of raw materials and materials was also expected. Against the background of maintaining high assessments of the cost of contractors' services, builders were set to significantly increase the volume of purchases of their services, while at the same time somewhat softening expectations regarding the availability of contractors.
For the first time in nine months, industrial enterprises gave positive assessments of the results of their current activities due to the gradual stabilization of the energy situation and the growth of consumer demand: the sectoral index in March was 51.2 compared to 46.9 in February (in March 2025 - 53.1). Unlike previous months, industrialists expected an increase in the volume of manufactured products, the volume of new orders for products, including export ones, and also optimistically assessed the balance of finished products. Expectations for a decrease in the volume of work in progress remained, and for a decrease in stocks of raw materials and materials softened.
Trade enterprises also optimistically assessed their economic results in view of the sufficient supply of goods and the slowdown in inflation: the sectoral index in March was 54, as in March 2025 (in February 2026 – 45). Unlike the previous month, trade companies were set to increase the volume of trade turnover and purchases of goods for sale. At the same time, assessments of stocks / balances of goods for sale improved. As before, respondents expected a decrease in trade margins, albeit at a lower pace.
Service enterprises had positive assessments of current business activity for the first time in ten months due to the gradual stabilization of the energy system and the revival of domestic demand: the sectoral index in March was 52.8 compared to 45.4 in February and was significantly higher than the indicator in March 2025 (48.8). Respondents were set to increase the volume of services provided, new orders for services, as well as services in the process of implementation.
Enterprises of all sectors predicted an acceleration in the growth rate of prices / tariffs for their own products / services against the background of a further expected increase in purchase prices, as well as prices for raw materials and materials. Only construction companies expected a slowdown in the growth rate of purchase prices.
The situation on the labor market remains unstable. As in the previous month, only representatives of construction were set to increase the total number of employees. In contrast, respondents from other sectors expected a reduction in personnel, most of all - industry.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from March 4 to 23, 2026. 591 enterprises participated in it. Among the surveyed enterprises, 44.2% were industrial companies, 25% were service companies, 24.5% were trade companies, 6.3% were construction companies; 31.5% of respondents are large enterprises, 29.1% are medium-sized, 39.4% are small.
34.3% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.3% carry out only export operations, 18.1% carry out only import operations, 38.2% do not carry out foreign economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinion of respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessment of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The Monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. It is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance indicators compared to the previous month.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the country's economic development per month. An index value of 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.