Dependence on russia could collapse Belarus' real estate market - intelligence
The residential real estate market in Belarus in 2025 demonstrated a classic example of price dysfunction that has nothing to do with fundamental economic indicators. Demand for housing fell by about 15% - a level that under normal conditions would inevitably lead to a price correction. Instead, the opposite happened: the average dollar check per square meter increased by 20-25% against the backdrop of a sharp drop in the number of transactions. This is stated in a report by the Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) of Ukraine.
According to intelligence, in Minsk the volume of purchases decreased by 13.3%, while prices increased by 17.5%. Brest showed minus 12% of transactions with a 16% increase in prices, in Gomel - minus 16% of transactions and a 24% increase in value. The worst situation in Grodno: the number of transactions collapsed by 34%, while prices soared by 35%.
"These are not signs of a stable market, these are symptoms of an artificially inflated bubble," the FIS emphasized.
The intelligence officers added that the current market configuration is a direct result of an external shock, not internal development. International sanctions forced Belarusians to look for tools to preserve savings in an accelerated mode. Real estate became a forced substitute for financial assets, which caused a surge in demand in 2022-2024 and pushed prices up by about 20%. Additional pressure was created by citizens of the aggressor country, russia, who tried to withdraw capital from the risk zone created by the unpredictable policy of the Kremlin.
It is noted that by 2025, the new price level turned out to be economically unattainable for most Belarusians. In the absence of currency distortions, the market would have to move on to a painful but inevitable search for a balance between supply and demand. However, the situation was finally unbalanced by the peg of the Belarusian ruble to the russian ruble, which artificially strengthened by 23% against the US dollar. Given the tradition of valuing real estate in foreign currency, currency exchange rate distortions were automatically translated into even higher nominal prices, disconnected from the solvency of the population.
This mechanism seems unstable even in the short term. In 2025, russia is expected to return to "real" exchange rate formation. The russian federation's federal budget is based on the calculation of about RUB 100 per USD. Sanction pressure and volatility in oil prices create additional risks for the rouble. A devaluation of 23-25% will be a shock to the Belarusian real estate market, forcing sellers to sharply revise dollar prices.
"Under such conditions, the current structure may simply not hold up. The combination of weak demand, inflated currency expectations, and external exchange rate correction creates all the prerequisites for a sharp and uncontrolled market collapse," the intelligence agency emphasized.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, according to intelligence data, by 2040 russia will turn into a "society of pensioners."