Economic activity of enterprises in October was restrained by shelling of infrastructure and labor shortages
Economic activity of enterprises in October was restrained by the shelling of infrastructure and a shortage of labor.
This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for a forced break in March-May 2022, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
It is noted that in October, businesses maintained positive assessments of their economic performance.
Incoming international financial support, steady consumer demand, budget funding for infrastructure and road construction, slowing inflation, and a stable situation in the foreign exchange market contributed to maintaining optimism.
In contrast, the economic activity of enterprises was restrained by the increased intensity of shelling, destruction of energy infrastructure, logistics and production facilities, energy shortages, significant business costs for recovery, labor and energy, and a persistent labor shortage.
In October 2025, the BAEI stood at 50.3 compared to 50.4 in September 2025 and was higher than the level in October 2024 (49.4).
Trade enterprises positively assessed their current economic performance for the eighth consecutive month and were the most optimistic among respondents for the second consecutive month due to the arrival of sufficient supply of goods from the new harvest, strong consumer demand and slowing inflation: the sectoral index in October increased to 54.3 from 54.0 in September 2025 (51.9 in October 2024).
Trade companies continued to expect an increase in turnover and purchases of goods for sale, and improved their estimates of inventories/balances of goods for sale. Respondents still expected a decline in trade margins, albeit at a slower pace
Construction companies also improved their assessment of the results of their current activities, taking into account budget funding for infrastructure rehabilitation and road construction, the revival of housing construction, as well as the seasonal factor: the sectoral index in October increased to 53.3 from 50.0 in September 2025 (in October 2024 - 49.6).
Builders were more confident about the increase in construction volumes, new orders and purchases of raw materials. Against the background of the expected slowdown in the growth of the cost of contractors' services, respondents were optimistic about accelerating the pace of increase in the volume of purchases of their services. Restrained assessments of the availability of contractors continued to soften.
Industrial enterprises provided more restrained assessments of their performance, given the further destruction of production facilities, high costs of recovery, labor and energy costs, and energy shortages: the sectoral index in October was 48.8 compared to 49.1 in September 2025 (49.8 in October 2024).
Unlike last month, industrialists were set to reduce the volume of new orders for products, as well as stocks of raw materials and supplies. They expected a further decline in new export orders, work in progress, and finished goods inventories. At the same time, respondents maintained positive expectations for an increase in the volume of manufactured goods.
Service companies also assessed their economic prospects more cautiously, given the destruction of railway infrastructure, the complication and increase in the cost of logistics, and the continued shortage of qualified personnel: the sectoral index in October was 48.7 (in September 2025 - 49.4, in October 2024 - 47.2). In contrast to the previous month, respondents expected a decrease in the volume of new orders for services. At the same time, positive expectations regarding the volume of services provided and services in progress remained.
Enterprises in industry, construction, and trade expected a slowdown in the growth of supplier prices and maintained high estimates of tariffs for their own products/services. On the other hand, service companies were set to increase prices for their own services amid an expected acceleration in the growth of purchase prices.
The situation on the labor market has somewhat softened.
Respondents from construction and trade expected an increase in the total number of employees.
However, in industry and the service sector, staff reductions were still expected, most significantly in industry.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from October 6 to 23, 2025. It was attended by 593 enterprises. Among the surveyed enterprises, 43.0% are industrial companies, 26.0% are service companies, 25.1% are trade companies, and 5.9% are construction companies; 29.8% of respondents are large enterprises, 28.5% are medium-sized, and 41.7% are small enterprises.
33.2% of the surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 8.9% - only export operations, 17.9% - only import operations, 40.0% - do not carry out foreign economic operations.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinion of the respondents - business leaders, and not the estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) is a tool for rapid assessment and tracking of economic trends. The index is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance indicators compared to the previous month.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly indices of business activity expectations are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the country's economic development for the month. The index value of 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.