IMF knows something about timing of end of war in Ukraine

The International Monetary Fund has revised its main forecast, which, as before, assumes that the war in Ukraine may end in the last months of 2025.

At the same time, the IMF emphasizes that "risks are still high."

The forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy for 2025 has been reduced by 0.5%, for 2026 - by 0.8% due to a decrease in steel exports and an increase in energy imports.

The IMF report also notes that the growth of the Ukrainian economy this year will be negatively affected by attacks on gas infrastructure by the invaders, the closure of the most important coal mine near Pokrovsk.

However, the forecasts for agricultural exports remain positive.

The memorandum states that progress in ending the war may have a positive impact on the Ukrainian economy. At the same time, the fund warns that negotiations are at an early stage, and there is a possibility of changes in the support of the country from international partners in the field of finance and security.

As IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted, macroeconomic stability in Ukraine is maintained thanks to skillful policymaking, as well as significant external support.