Inflation to rise in coming months due to continued impact of last year's poor harvests, - NBU

The National Bank reports that inflation will rise in coming months due to continued impact of last year's poor harvests and increased production costs of enterprises.

This is stated in the NBU's message, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

At the same time, the NBU's measures to strengthen monetary policy will limit fundamental price pressure, and the arrival of new harvests in the summer will slow down the growth of food prices.

Thanks to the NBU's measures and the gradual exhaustion of the impact of temporary drivers of inflation, it should return to a slowdown trajectory in the second half of the year and fall to a single-digit level by the end of the year.

On the policy horizon, inflation will decrease to the 5% target.

The key risk for inflation dynamics and economic development remains the course of a full-scale war.

The war continues, and russian aggression continues to pose risks of further decline in economic potential, in particular due to the loss of people, territories, and industries.

The speed of the economy's return to normal operating conditions will depend on the nature and duration of hostilities.

Risks to the adequacy of international financing remain balanced.

The volumes of external support confirmed for this year should be sufficient both for emission-free financing of the budget deficit and maintaining an appropriate level of international reserves.

This will allow the NBU to continue to ensure a stable situation in the foreign exchange market and control over inflation and exchange rate expectations.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in January 2025, consumer prices increased by 1.2%.

Compared to January 2024, in January 2025, consumer prices increased by 12.9%.