Russia preparing large-scale offensive at front in summer - The Economist

The aggressor state russia will launch a major offensive closer to the summer of this year, and Ukraine's ability to contain it looks less certain given the amount of ammunition and the pace of mobilization.

The Economist reports this.

The publication notes that with the arrival of spring warming, Ukraine will have two kinds of respite. First, for about a month, mud will complicate the transfer of enemy troops and equipment. Second, according to The Economist, the shelling of critical infrastructure by russia should not be "so unbearable." Spring muddy terrain would have to contain the wave of russian attacks along the front line, which stretches through the east and south of Ukraine, but this will not last long.

“As spring turns to summer, the fear is that Russia will mount a big new offensive, as it did last year. And Ukraine’s ability to hold it off this time looks much less sure now than it did then. That is why it urgently needs to mobilize more troops and build more robust front-line defences,” the material says.

At the same time, blocking the package of military assistance to Ukraine in the U.S. Congress has an impact on the front line and the defense of Ukraine. Troops are forced to ration their shells, while in some areas the russian federation prevails in their number as five to one. The deadlock in the United States may allow russia to break through the defense lines of Ukraine, and the terrorist attack in the moscow region encourages the russian dictator putin to mobilize for an offensive, the publication notes.

According to The Economist, Ukraine cannot mobilize in the necessary number, and is also very late in strengthening its own defensive positions. The publication reports that the Ukrainian government is counting on a new counteroffensive and is wary of turning the current front line into a border that cuts off a fifth of the country and deprives the state of access to the sea.

“The idea that this line might become the basis for a future peace negotiation is exactly what Mr Zelenskyy has wanted to avoid. But the dangers are now so great that it is the least bad option,” the report said.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on January 3, the head of the Kharkiv garrison, Brigadier General Serhii Melnyk, said that the aggressor's troops would go on the offensive on the Kharkiv axis as soon as the ground froze.

On March 22, the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Pavliuk, said that the russians were creating a 100,000-strong group of troops for a possible offensive in early summer.

On March 28, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) announced that the newly formed units of the invaders would not be able to conduct large-scale offensive actions in Ukraine.