ISW predicts whether russia will go on offensive in near future

The russian army is preparing reserves to support active military operations in Ukraine. However, these newly created units will not be able to carry out large-scale offensive actions.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is noted that the russian military began a large-scale recruitment of personnel for units that were recently recreated in the Leningrad Military District (LMD).

The British Ministry of Defence reported that the 44th Army Corps of the LMD began recruiting in Luga, Leningrad Oblast.

It is known that earlier the kremlin used newly created units to conduct operations in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, the need for russia to continue military operations in Ukraine complicates its efforts to form regular armed forces. This corresponds to the preliminary forecasts of the Institute for the Study of War on the reform of russian troops.

“ISW continues to assess that Russia is forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing operations in Ukraine, but that such reserves are unlikely to be able to function as cohesive large-scale penetration or exploitation formations in 2024,” the report noted.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on January 3, the head of the Kharkiv garrison, Brigadier General Serhii Melnyk, said that the aggressor's troops would go on the offensive on the Kharkiv axis as soon as the ground froze.

On February 15, Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesman for the Eastern Group of Armed Forces, said that the Ukrainian military did not exclude and was ready for a new russian offensive on Kharkiv and Kupiansk.

On March 22, the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Pavliuk, said that the russians were creating a 100,000-strong group of troops for a possible offensive in early summer.