ISW assesses consequences of significant losses of russian aviation in recent weeks

The downing of russian planes in recent weeks has forced the aggressor state, russia, to significantly reduce the activity of its aviation in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, in the future, the russian command may decide to take on the risk of further aviation losses in pursuit of further tactical benefits.

This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Thus, experts noted that the recent relatively high losses of russian aircraft appear to be prompting a significant reduction in russian aircraft activity in eastern Ukraine. However, it is unclear how long this reduction in activity will last.

In particular, the report cites data from the commander of the AFU Air Force, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, on March 2 that russian aircraft completely ceased operations in eastern Ukraine around 19:00 local time after Ukraine shot down an enemy Su-34.

Also, AFU Air Force spokesperson / Colonel Yurii Ihnat reported that the decrease in russian aviation activity continued on March 3 and that russian forces continued not to use A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft after the destruction of the A-50 aircraft on February 23.

It is recalled that Ukrainian officials have reported that russian forces have lost 15 aircraft since February 17, which is no small loss for the russian military, considering that russia probably has about 300 different Sukhoi fighter jets.

Experts conclude that previous losses of russian aircraft prompted the russian military to temporarily reduce air activity throughout Ukraine for significant periods. However, it remains unclear how long this current period of a temporary reduction in russian air activity will last.

"Russian forces appear to have put up with increased air losses in recent weeks in order to conduct air defense strikes in support of russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, and the russian command may decide in the future to take the risk of further air losses in pursuit of further tactical benefits," the message says.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on March 2, the AFU Air Force Command confirmed the downing of one russian Su-34 fighter-bomber.

Meanwhile, British intelligence says that a week after the loss of a second A-50U long-range radar detection and control aircraft, russia has most likely stopped flying those aircraft in support of operations in Ukraine.