Russian army command overestimates offensive capabilities of its army – ISW

In the east of Ukraine, fighting continues along the line Kupiyansk – Svatove – Kreminna. Russian "military bloggers" assure that there is promotion in the occupation forces, but most of such statements are not confirmed by anything.

At the same time, it became known about the arrival of the minister of defense of the russian federation, Sergey Shoigu, to one of the command posts of the western group of russian troops on this part of the front, which may indicate a reassessment by the russian command of the offensive capabilities of the occupation forces.

What is happening in the Luhansk Region, where the russian federation continues to make efforts to occupy the entire region and advance to the Kharkiv Region and Donetsk Region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.

Analysts stated that on February 9, positional battles continued on the line Kupiyansk – Svatove – Kreminna. Russian troops managed to make a slight advance to the east of Bilohorivka. However, they do not confirm the statements of the russian "military forces" about the capture by the occupiers of the industrial zone and the chalk factory east of Bilohorivka.

Likewise, ISW analysts failed to find confirmation of russian statements about the advance of the occupiers near Synkivka (northwest of Kupiyansk) and in the direction of Pishchane (southeast of Kupiyansk).

At the same time, according to the statements of both Ukrainian and russian sources, positional battles were taking place near Synkivka and Ivanivka in the Kharkiv Region, as well as in Terny, Yampolivka, Dibrova, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka in the Luhansk Region.

Against the background of these battles, minister of defense Sergey Shoigu visited the command post of the western group of russian troops in the Kupiyansk or Lyman Axes. According to russian reports, he listened to the reports of the commanders of the russian armed forces about the situation on the front line.

From this visit, ISW concluded that russia may be overestimating its own offensive capabilities against the background of more than modest gains in this direction. After all, the last time he came to the command post of the eastern group of russian troops in the south of the Donetsk Region was in October 2023, shortly after the start of the russian offensive in the area of Avdiyivka.

"Shoigu's visit may signal that the Western troop grouping is reassessing aspects of its current offensive operation along the Kupiyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line after intensive russian offensives in January led to only modest tactical gains in the area. Shoigu's visit may also testify to the fact that the russian military command gives priority to offensive operations on the Kupiyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line," ISW summarized.