ISW analysts predict how russia would use the Il-76 disaster

Russian information resources are actively using the Il-76 disaster to disperse internal discontent in Ukraine and undermine the West's desire to provide military support to Ukraine.

This follows from a statement by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Military analysts quote Andrii Kartapolov, the chairman of the Defense Committee of the russian State Duma, who claims that Ukraine deliberately shot down an IL-76 carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war and calls for an indefinite suspension of prisoner-of-war exchanges.

Deputy Chairman of the russian Security Council, Dmytro Medvedev, accuses the Ukrainian "internal political struggle" of being involved in the disaster. russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, while in New York at a meeting of the UN Security Council, demands an urgent convening of a meeting of the UN Security Council dedicated to the plane crash and accuses Ukraine of terrorism.

ISW emphasizes that such russian accusations are aimed at sowing discontent in Ukraine and increasing distrust of the Ukrainian government, which is reflected in other russian information campaigns aimed at weakening Ukraine domestically.

Military analysts point to the sensitivity of the prisoner exchange issue for both russia and Ukraine and note that rhetorical references to prisoners of war predictably evoke an emotional response. russian officials also make unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine shot down the Il-76 with US- or German-made missile systems, possibly in an attempt to persuade Ukraine's Western allies to withdraw critical air defense systems from Ukraine.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on the morning of February 24, social media and mass media reported that a russian Il-76 military transport plane had crashed in the Belgorod Oblast.

Russian officials and propagandists began to claim that 65 captured Ukrainian servicemen were allegedly on board the plane, who were being transported to the Belgorod Oblast for exchange. The crew was russian.

The Defense Intelligence of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine confirmed that an exchange of prisoners was planned for today, but it did not take place.

The Defense Intelligence also stated that Ukraine does not have reliable and comprehensive information about who exactly was on board the russian IL-76 aircraft and how many.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) made an official statement that the AFU will continue to take measures to destroy means of delivery control of the airspace to destroy the terrorist threat, including in the Belgorod-Kharkiv direction.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, commenting on the alleged downing of a russian plane with Ukrainian prisoners, said that all the facts must be established and that Ukraine will insist on an international investigation.