RF creates conditions for provocations on border with Chernihiv Region and in Moldova – ISW

Russia is trying to create conditions for false flag operations on the border with the Chernihiv Region and in Moldova.

This follows from a statement by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that on February 23, the North Operational Command informed that the intelligence had already recorded how columns of invaders with military equipment without identification marks and personnel dressed in uniforms similar to Ukrainian ones are advancing towards the border areas of the Chernihiv Region.

The North Operational Command explained that the purpose of these operations under a false flag is an attempt to accuse Ukrainian troops of violating the territorial integrity of an unspecified country, meaning, most likely, Belarus.

"It is possible that the Kremlin is preparing false flag attacks in order to draw Belarus into the war (provided Lukashenko's February 16 statement that Belarus will enter the war only in the event of an attack from Ukraine)," the report says.

ISW continues to assess that an attack by Belarus or Russia on Ukraine's northern regions is highly unlikely, but the Kremlin is keen to pressure Lukashenko or accuse Ukraine of widening the war to undermine Kyiv's support.

Such a false flag operation may also be aimed at entrenching Ukrainian forces on the northern border with the aim of weakening Ukrainian defenses in the east of Ukraine and preparing for counteroffensive operations.

Experts, it seems that Moscow is also creating informational conditions for conducting a false flag operation in occupied Transnistria.

The Institute for the Study of War pointed out and explained that on February 23, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation spread the lie that Ukrainian troops are planning an armed provocation against Transnistria in the near future.

The terrorist state convinced that the Ukrainian forces would disguise themselves as Russian military and stage an alleged offensive in Transnistria. In turn, the government of Moldova denied the accusations.

"The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation probably sought to raise this false narrative in order to twist the warning of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the President of Moldova Maia Sandu that the Kremlin is preparing provocations in Moldova and his offer to help Moldova if Russian forces in Transnistria threaten the territorial integrity of Ukraine," the analysts added.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres believes that Russia's war against Ukraine will not end in the near future.

Ukrainian defenders repelled about 100 Russian attacks in the past day.