Russians launch offensive in Luhansk Region, but AFU might use the move for a counterattack – ISW
Russian invaders launched a large-scale offensive in the Luhansk Region, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) prevented them from achieving significant success.
This follows from a statement by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to the institute's analysts, Russian troops regained the initiative in Ukraine and launched a major offensive operation in the Luhansk Region.
The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western the Luhansk Region has increased significantly over the past week, with Russian sources reporting that Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making minor advances along the border between the Kharkiv and Luhansk Regions, especially northwest of Svatove near Kupiyansk and west of Kreminna.
Analysts note that geolocation footage of the fighting confirmed Russian successes in the Dvorichne area northwest of Svatove.
According to experts, the involvement of significant parts of at least three major Russian divisions in offensive operations in this sector indicates that the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are still preventing Russian forces from making significant progress.
The offensive of the occupiers, the institute suggests, has not yet gained full momentum; the Russian command has not yet activated part of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District), which was deployed to Luhansk Region in January after deploying to Belarus.
Although Russian forces in the Luhansk Region now have the initiative (in the sense that Russian forces are setting the terms of battle, ending the Ukrainian initiative period from August 2022), the combat capability of these forces may lead to their eventual culmination on the Svatove-Kreminna line without achieving the objectives of capturing the entire the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions.
"This culmination will likely create a window of opportunity for Ukrainian forces to use for their own counteroffensive," the report said.
According to reports, the command of the so-called ‘People's Militia’ of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic took control of a Russian artillery battalion, probably as part of an effort to strengthen the degraded forces of the DPR on the eve of an imminent Russian offensive.
ISW has not previously observed Russian servicemen under the command of DPR formations, and this claim, if true, suggests that Russian forces are likely to reinforce the degraded DPR formations with mobilized personnel mobilized from Russia itself, as DPR is unable to compensate for its own losses.
Experts note, the Ministry of Defense of Russia will probably try to correct the low efficiency of the DPR/LPR forces by quickly integrating Russian personnel.
The report also states that Russian officials continue to propose measures to prepare the Russian military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine, and are also likely to create additional conditions for evading sanctions.
Russian officials also likely proposed the measures in coordination with a recent executive order exempting Russian officials from income tax filing requirements and proposals to eliminate federal procurement procedures.
The Kremlin may be creating a system of subsidies and benefits designed with minimal oversight and accounting.
ISW notes that the lack of control and accounting will likely allow Russian companies to more easily evade international sanctions regimes targeting the Russian military industry.
"The Kremlin's efforts to prepare the Russian military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine rely in part on the ability of the Russian military industry to have constant access to numerous protected supply chains of key foreign components that cannot otherwise be produced," the institute concludes.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the Kremlin is in a hurry to launch a new major offensive to capture the Donetsk Region, but does not have enough combat power for this, and is setting unrealistic deadlines.
Meanwhile, British intelligence also considers it unlikely that Russia will be able to build up the forces necessary to significantly influence the outcome of the war in the coming weeks. Despite Russia's intention to capture Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donetsk Region, due to which the Russian army has been trying to resume major offensive operations since the beginning of January 2023, the occupiers lack the ammunition and maneuver units necessary for a successful offensive.