Threat of enemy’s large-scale offensive remains possible, Luhansk and Donetsk Regions will be under attack – I

Russia is not abandoning plans to completely capture the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions, but the implementation of this plan will take 6 to 12 months and will require a large-scale offensive.

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts explain the aggravation at the front by the desire to prevent Ukraine from regaining the initiative on the eve of the Russian offensive in Donbas.

The ISW believes that the offensive of the Russian Federation in the Donetsk Region will lead to the capture by Russian troops of key positions in the western part of the Luhansk Region and the northeast of the Donetsk Region. The main direction of the Russian offensive will remain Bakhmut, and the line of defense will be the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Localized attacks on Vuhledar and settlements in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Regions are likely aimed at dispersing Ukrainian forces and creating conditions for a decisive Russian offensive in the western part of the Luhansk Region, as previously assessed by ISW.

Russian forces may try to disperse groups of Ukrainian troops on the Svatove-Kreminna line to allow the Russians to recapture Lyman in the Donetsk Region.

ISW suggests that the Russian Federation may once again rely on false information about the capabilities of the Russian armed forces. Therefore, they believe that even if the Russian Federation captures Vuhledar, it is unlikely that the Russian army will have the strength to capture the remaining part of the Donetsk Region.

The current offensives of the Russian Federation may disrupt Ukraine's plans for a counteroffensive, but the further offensive of the Russian Federation will also not be able to develop due to the spring rainy season.

After that, the culmination of Russian forces will create favorable conditions for Ukrainian forces to use in their counteroffensive in late spring or summer 2023. In addition, Ukraine will benefit from the supply of Western tanks that have just been promised.

ISW assumes that eventually Ukraine will find itself in a favorable position for a counteroffensive.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, six children whose parents do not want to evacuate the city still remain in the city of Vuhledar in the Donetsk Region, which has been subjected to mass shelling by the Russians in recent days.

During one of these attacks, more than 100 Russians died.