ISW explains whether Russia planning to attack Kyiv again from Belarus
By deploying troops in the territory of Belarus in November 2022, the Kremlin is trying to strengthen Russian training capabilities and conduct an information operation aimed at the West.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that satellite images indicate an increase in Russian military equipment, in particular tanks at the 230th combined military Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground in Brest. The number is observed for approximately one brigade.
At the same time, the monitoring organization Belarusian Gayun reported that the Kremlin had transferred 15 Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems and 10 units of unspecified engineering equipment to Brest.
"These deployments support Russia's training efforts, not preparations for hostilities from Belarus. On November 28, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that it estimated Russian forces would move unspecified elements ("some units") from Belarus to an unspecified area after the units "will gain combat capability," ISW said.
The corresponding statements indicate that combat losses among Russian instructors and the stresses associated with mobilization have reduced the training potential of the Russian Federation, probably increasing dependence on Belarus in terms of training potential, experts explain.
"The Kremlin is also likely to seek to use the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus as an information operation to pin Ukrainian forces around Kyiv to prevent their use in the south and east. Belarusian troops are unlikely to attack Ukraine," the Institute for the Study of War added.
ISW Key Findings:
- Russia's declared capture of several small villages around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 does not mean an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.
- Russian media bloggers widely criticized the decision of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to introduce strict customs restrictions on the import of dual-purpose goods, which indicates a long-term and widespread dissatisfaction with the conduct of war in Ukraine.
- Russian forces are likely preparing to launch a new wave of missile strikes on Ukraine in the coming week, but such preparations are likely aimed at maintaining the recent pace of strikes, not increasing them.
- Russian forces continued to fight Ukrainian counteroffensive operations around Svatove, as Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued to counteroffensive west of Kreminna.
- Russian troops achieved gradual success south of Bakhmut.
- Russian troops continued to strengthen fortified positions and establish security measures in the east of the Kherson Region.
- Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military assets and along critical logistics lines in southern Ukraine.
- The Russian armed forces continue to face training and equipment problems, as well as morale and discipline problems, as the failures of the Russian military have significant social consequences domestically.
- The invaders continued to try to promote the integration of education systems in the occupied territories of Ukraine into the Russian system.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Russian servicemen continue to arrive in Belarus.
On October 10, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Oleksandr Lukashenko, said that he was aware of alleged preparations for an attack on Belarus by Ukraine.
On October 10, the Minister of Defense of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, said that Belarus is not going to war with Ukrainians and other peoples, unless there are provocations and "wrong actions."
At the same time, on October 20, the deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksii Hromov, said that the Russian occupying forces may launch a second offensive from the territory of Belarus, but their main goal will not be Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Budanov believes that Russia is unlikely to open a second front from Belarus due to its low combat potential, but the theoretical possibility of such an attack still remains.