3 Scenarios For Development Of Battle For Donbas From Russian Media

The outcome of the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine will be determined as a result of the battle for the Donbas, which could follow three scenarios. The outcome of the war is likely to depend on what form of attack is chosen, Meduza reported on Friday, April 22.

Scenario 1. Large encirclement

The publication believes that the Russian army can inflict counter attacks from the north (from the bridgehead south of Izium) through Barvinkove and from the south (from the area of Velyka Novosilka and Huliaipole) in order to surround all the forces of Ukraine in the Donbas. To do this, the invaders need much more military plus they need to provide a reliable rear in the captured territories, which looks unrealistic in the current conditions, writes Meduza.

Scenario 2. Front scattering

The Russian army may carry out several smaller operations to drain the forces of the Ukrainian army and drain the defense. In this version, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to receive foreign weapons and replenish the forces of the army, while Russia can only hope for its own reserves, writes Meduza.

Scenario 3. Small encirclement

The publication indicates that the Russian troops can move towards each other to break through the front south of Izium (through Sloviansk and Kramatorsk) and from the area of Donetsk. To do this, the Russian army needs to break through well-fortified areas, which does not guarantee success, but threatens with heavy losses and depletion of troops, Meduza suggests.

The publication writes that each of the options has advantages and disadvantages and does not guarantee the success of the Russian army.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on April 22, the speaker of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Oleksandr Motuzianyk said that the Russian army is completing the determination of favorable places for striking in the Donbas.

On April 18, the American think tank Institute for the Study of War indicated in a report that the offensive of Russian troops in the east of Ukraine is unlikely to be more successful than the previous ones, but Russian forces can wear out Ukrainian defenders or achieve limited success.

A review of British intelligence on the war in Ukraine on April 21 said that Russia was in a hurry to win at least some "victory" by May 9.