Russia sharply reduces its massive strikes on Ukraine: ISW outlines two possible scenarios

In June 2026, russia carried out large-scale missile and drone strikes against Ukraine much less frequently than in previous months. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that the reasons for this change are still unknown, but two possible scenarios are being considered.

This is detailed in a new ISW report.

Analysts point out that since mid-January, russian forces have regularly carried out massive attacks using more than 300 air-attack assets. There were six such strikes in February, four in March, five in April, and six in May.

At the same time, in June, the russian army carried out only two large-scale attacks—on June 2 and 15.

The ISW emphasizes that it cannot yet definitively explain this trend but is considering two main theories.

The first is that russia may be deliberately stockpiling missiles and drones for an even more powerful strike in the future. According to experts, the kremlin may be waiting for the right moment to launch the most intense attack possible and further exhaust Ukraine’s air defense system.

Another possible scenario is that the russian defense industry is currently unable to maintain its previous production rates or accumulate the necessary number of air-attack weapons for regular, massive bombardments.

At the same time, analysts caution that a decrease in the number of large-scale attacks does not mean the threat has diminished. Definitive conclusions regarding the reasons for this change can only be drawn after the situation develops further.

As a reminder, on the night of July 2, russia, the aggressor nation, launched a massive attack on Kyiv. The strike damaged residential buildings, a market, and other civilian infrastructure, including a building housing one of the emergency medical service substations.

As of the morning of July 3, 30 casualties have been reported.